Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface observations, coastal radar data, and satellite wind data
indicate that the area of low pressure near the northeastern coast
of the Florida Peninsula is now just southeast of Daytona Beach and
is producing gale-force winds to the north of the center. Due to
unfavorable upper-level winds, the low is expected to weaken to a
trough and move westward across the northern Florida Peninsula and
into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Even though development is not expected, gusty winds and locally
heavy rains are likely over portions of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia tonight through Sunday night. Please see
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing
a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers extending
from the eastern Caribbean Sea northward across the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico to the nearby Atlantic waters.
Environmental conditions are not favorable for development
and tropical cyclone formation is not forecast. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next few days bringing locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and the
Greater Antilles during the next several days. A Flash Flood Watch
in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through late
Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven