10 Jul Tue 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast
of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

1. The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain over portions of central and eastern Hispaniola, and the
adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward across the rest of Hispaniola today and over
the southeastern Bahamas this evening. Little development is
expected during the next day or so due to land interaction and
unfavorable upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to turn
northward over the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level
winds could become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a
tropical cyclone later this week. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of
Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through
those areas. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

CHRIS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD… …EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

The satellite presentation of Chris has improved overnight with an
increase in convective banding and the recent development of a
banding eye. An earlier NOAA and an overnight Air Force Reserve
aircraft have noted the presence of a ragged 25 n mi wide eye, which
can also be seen in NWS WSR-88D radar imagery from Morehead City,
North Carolina. Despite the increase in organization the Air Force
aircraft did not find winds to support hurricane strength. In
fact, the plane only measured peak 850 mb flight level winds of 66
kt and SFMR winds of around 50 kt. However, there is likely some
undersampling as the plane only made one pass through each quadrant.
Therefore the initial remains 60 kt, which is compromise between
the most recent satellite estimates and the lower reconnaissance
data. The aircraft did report that the pressure has fallen to 993
mb.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes suggest that Chris may be
beginning its much anticipated northeastward motion, albeit very
slow at the moment. A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to drop
southeastward over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States
which should begin to steer Chris on a faster northeastward heading
over the next day or so. As the trough deepens, Chris should
accelerate further as it becomes embedded within deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. Chris is forecast to pass
well southeast of Nova Scotia in a couple of days, then move near
or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours. The track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, but some
speed differences remain. The updated NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies between the slower ECMWF
and the various consensus aids.

As Chris begins to move northeastward, it will be leaving the area
of upwelled cooler waters and traversing warm SSTs during the
next 24 to 36 h. This should result in strengthening and Chris is
expected to become a hurricane later today. By 48 h, Chris will be
moving over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream and begin
interacting with a frontal system. Extratropical transition is
expected to be complete in about 60-72 h, and the extratropical low
is forecast to gradually weaken after passing Newfoundland. The
new NHC intensity forecast is closest to the Florida State
Superensemble, which is a little higher than the statistical
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 32.6N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 33.1N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 34.4N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 39.7N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 46.5N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 50.7N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure has developed a little over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
during the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Forecaster Roberts

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

Light to moderate east to northeasterly winds and seas are expected over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure lingers north of the Caribbean. Further east, a tropical wave east of Jamaica is expected to enter the Cayman area by tomorrow morning, enhancing our chances of showers and thunder by tomorrow afternoon onwards. Radar images show no showers over the Cayman area. At 4 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm (TS) Chris. TS Chris was located near 32.6 N 73.9 W or about 200 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and is moving towards the northeast at 2 mph with max sustained winds of 70 mph. THIS STORM POSES NO THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

 

Humidity: 79%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 11.51   EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – Not available.  See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 90.0°F  L 79.6°F

Wind direction TODAY: ENE 10-20 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 10-15 mph GC

Barometer: 1014.90 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 11.49 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month:  0.19 in  1 day since rain 3 rain days in July

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 Season Total: 17.65 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in July 6.9 in.  Average temperature in July: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in July 84°F

 

Moon illumination: 10% Waning Gibbous