Aug 11 Friday 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles
north of the northern Leeward Islands has become a little better
organized since yesterday, but there are no indications of a closed
circulation. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development by the weekend, but dry air aloft could limit
additional development of the thunderstorm activity. This makes
the overall environment only marginally conducive for tropical
cyclone formation. The disturbance is expected to move northwestward
today, then northward over the weekend across the western Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A weak and elongated area of low pressure just off the east coast
of Florida is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending from southern Florida northeastward across the
southwestern Atlantic. Upper-level winds are not favorable for
development but this system could still produce locally heavy rains
to portions of the Florida peninsula as it moves northward during
the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

 Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is located about 160 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the
system continue to become better organized, and a tropical
depression could be forming. Any additional increase in
organization would result in the issuance of advisories today or
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the coast
of southern Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some slow development of this system as
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts