Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

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Forecaster Landsea

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Eugene, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Additional
gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The areal coverage of cold cloud tops continues to decrease, and
microwave images indicate that all the remaining deep convection is
restricted to the northwestern quadrant. Based on a blend of the
latest subjective and objective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers,
Eugene is estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt. With sea
surface temperatures decreasing below 22 deg C ahead of Eugene, the
cyclone’s winds and convection will continue to wane, and it will
likely degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. Based on the
global models, the remnant low should dissipate by day 5.

Eugene remains on a steady northwestward heading of 325/8 kt.
Little change in this trajectory is expected during the next
several days as Eugene moves toward a break in the subtropical
ridge located off the northern Baja California coast. Some
reduction in forward speed is likely by day 3 and 4 when the
remnant low is steered by weaker low-level winds. The updated NHC
track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and
is not too different from the previous forecast.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern
California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous
rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your
local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 20.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 22.8N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 24.0N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z 25.2N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 27.1N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 28.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

A few isolated showers are expected across the Cayman area over the next 24 hours as an upper level low pressure system lingers over the Northwest Caribbean. Radar images show scattered showers mainly north of the Islands which are moving towards the west.