Aug 12 Saturday 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area located about 150 miles northeast of the Turks
and Caicos Islands has become a little better defined this morning
and the shower activity has increased somewhat since yesterday.
Conditions are gradually becoming more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. The
low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward through the
weekend, and then turn to the northeast away from the United States
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Forecaster Avila

 Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located near Socorro Island.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a surface trough.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
conducive for development, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form
by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jova are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jova are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Jova has a disorganized appearance in satellite imagery at this
time, with the primary convection displaced to the southwest of the
center by 15-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. Two recent
scatterometer overpasses show winds near 35 kt mainly in the
southeast quadrant, so that remains the initial intensity. The
initial radii of 34-kt winds and 12-ft seas have been revised on
the basis of the scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 285/10. A mid-level ridge building westward
across the eastern Pacific should cause Jova to turn westward by
24 h, and that general motion should continue until dissipation.
The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and
the new forecast track is an update of the previous track.

Jova should remain over warm sea surface temperatures for the next
24-36 h. However, continued northeasterly shear should limit
intensification during that time. After that, the cyclone should
start to decay as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures.
The new intensity forecast is revised to keep the system as a
tropical cyclone through 48 h and then have the remnant low last
through 96 h in agreement with large-scale model guidance. Other
than that, the new intensity forecast is only slightly changed from
the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 19.3N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 19.7N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 19.9N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 20.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z 20.5N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven