12 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H-cane, 1 Dist

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles north-northeast of the Turks
and Caicos Islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued its
last advisory on Tropical Depression Irma, located inland over
western Georgia. Subsequent advisories will be issued by the
Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC.

1. Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands are
poorly organized. Upper-level winds are not expected to support
significant development while the system moves northwestward to
northward for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Beven

JOSE WEAKENS A LITTLE WHILE IT TURNS EASTWARD

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

Jose continues to be affected by 20 kt of northerly vertical shear,
and recent microwave imagery shows that the low-level center is to
the northeast or north of a large burst of convection that shows
little evidence of banding. While satellite intensity estimates
have changed little since the last advisory, the sheared appearance
suggests the cyclone has continued to weaken, and the initial
intensity is thus reduced to 65 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS
satellite consensus.

The hurricane appears to have turned eastward with an initial motion
of 090/5. As a mid-level ridge first builds around and then moves
northeast of the cyclone, the track guidance forecasts Jose to make
an anticyclonic half-loop during the next 72 h. After that time,
the confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges
significantly. One the right side, the ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast a turn toward the north and northeast, while on the left
side the UKMET forecasts a westward motion towards the Bahamas. The
GFS, HWRF, and the various consensus models are between these
extremes in forecasting a turn toward the northwest and eventually
north-northwest. The new forecast track is in best agreement with
these models and shifts slightly to the right of the previous
advisory by 120 h.

A strong upper-level anticyclone near 28N 74W is the source of the
current shear. As mentioned in the previous advisory, this feature
is supposed to weaken and pass north of the cyclone without allowing
much decrease in the shear through 48 h. The large-scale models
then suggest the possibility of lighter shear from 48-72 h, followed
by increasing shear as Jose encounters an upper-level trough moving
eastward from the southeastern United States. Overall, the intensity
guidance shows small fluctuations in strength during the forecast
period, and there is little agreement in the guidance on the timing
of the various ups and downs. The intensity forecast will follow
the shear trends in calling for some additional weakening during the
next 12-24 h, modest re-intensification during the lighter shear,
and no change during the subsequent increase in shear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 27.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 26.9N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 25.3N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 25.5N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 27.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 30.0N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles west-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing widespread disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form toward the end of the week while the system moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. After that time, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development while it moves
slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

Forecaster Roberts

POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Shortwave and BD-curve infrared imagery earlier showed a deep
convective burst with -70C cold tops near the surface center. That
convective mass has since been displaced about 90 miles west of the
exposed center and has warmed and diminished. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 25 kt and agrees with the Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast has
become a bit problematic. Earlier SHIPS model runs indicated that
the shear would either persist or increase. The latest run,
however, reveals the shear decreasing considerably after 48 hours.
On the other hand, the GFS, ECMWF, and the LGEM intensity guidance
all show the depression gradually weakening and becoming a remnant
low in 5 days or less, while the UKMET strengthens the cyclone to a
tropical storm around day 3. A third scenario is indicated in the
HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique, which is similar to the
GFS, ECMWF and the LGEM, but shows dissipation in less than 48
hours. The NHC forecast reflects some increase in intensity at the
24 hour period, but after that time, it shows weakening to a remnant
low in 3 days, out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF global models,
the LGEM, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique.

The motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge extending over the eastern Pacific from
the Baja California peninsula is forecast to build slightly
southwestward later today influencing the depression to turn
west-southwestward. At the 36 hour period, the cyclone should
gradually turn back toward the west followed by a northwestward
motion around 72 hours in response to an increasing weakness in the
ridge along 123W. Around day 4, the depression is forecast to
turn back toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow.
The official forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast
and is in the middle of the ECMWF and HCCA solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 15.8N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.3N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 15.9N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z 15.9N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Light southwesterly winds and slight seas will continue across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours due to the slack pressure slack pressure field across the Northwest Caribbean. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving north to northeast.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 74% (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 12.1 EXTREME (UP from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website. Yesterday: H 90.8°F L 84.1°F

Wind direction TODAY: S 10-20 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: Light & variable GC

Barometer: 1012:00 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 4.29 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 1.91 in

16 Rain days in Aug 6 Rain days in Sep 1 day since rain

2016 Season Total: 20.23 in 2017 Season Total: 25.35 in

*NOTE: Official Government record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.