Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of Mexico during the next few days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be somewhat conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form next week while the system
moves slowly toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017

A ragged eye has become intermittently discernible on conventional
infrared imagery, and this feature is surrounded by very cold
convective tops. The outflow continues to be well established in
the southern and eastern semicircle only. T-numbers have
continued to gradually increase to T4.5 and T5.0 on the Dvorak
scale, and the blend of these numbers support an initial intensity
of 85 kt.

Fernanda is moving across the deep tropics toward an environment of
low shear and warm ocean, and these conditions are very favorable
for additional intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. Given
such favorable environment, the NHC forecast calls for additional
strengthening, and the forecast is a little more aggressive than
indicated in the consensus. It is worth noting that the latest SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index (RI) is not as high as earlier. Beyond
3 days, Fernanda will likely encounters cooler waters, and a gradual
weakening is expected to begin.

Fernanda is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10kt. The
hurricane is trapped south of a strong and persistent subtropical
ridge, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone
westward during the next 2 to 3 days. By then, Fernanda could begin
to move west-northwestward toward a weakening of the subtropical
ridge. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one,
and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Track guidance
continues to be tightly clustered, and this increases the confidence
in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 11.0N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 10.8N 119.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 11.0N 121.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 11.4N 123.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 12.0N 125.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 13.5N 130.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 16.0N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

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