20 Aug Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 2 Dist Atlantic, 1 Dist CS

August 20, 2017

Aug 20 Sunday 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Harvey, which has degenerated into a tropical wave over the
central Caribbean Sea.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with the remnants of Harvey. Unfavorable
upper-level winds and dry air are expected to inhibit development
today. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for regeneration by Monday when the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea, and interests
in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of
the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
trough of low pressure. The system is currently embedded in a dry
air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to
support development in a couple of days. Therefore, tropical
cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017

The overall cloud pattern of Kenneth has changed little since the
previous advisory. The center remains embedded with a fairly
symmetric central dense overcast, but there has been no evidence of
an eye in infrared satellite pictures overnight. Subjective and
objective Dvorak T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0, which support
maintaining an initial wind speed of 60 kt.

Kenneth is forecast to remain within a low shear environment and
over warm water for another 24 to 36 hours. This should result
in strengthening and Kenneth is expected to become a hurricane
later today. After that time, decreasing sea surface temperatures
and less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause gradual
weakening. Late in the period, increasing southwesterly shear
should hasten Kenneth’s demise and the system is expected to become
a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
SHIPS guidance and the IVCN multi-model consensus through 72 hours,
but is a little below this guidance at days 4 and 5.

Kenneth has been moving generally westward during the past 24 hours
and recent satellite fixes suggest that Kenneth’s forward motion
has slowed to about 13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous few advisories, with Kenneth expected
to move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the
next couple of days. By Tuesday, a developing weakness in the
ridge should cause Kenneth to turn northwestward, then
north-northwestward late in the period. The early portion of
the track forecast has been shifted a little southward, primarily
due to a more southward initial position as noted by recent
microwave data. After 72 h, the dynamical models have come
into a little better agreement and little change was required to
the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 16.0N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 18.2N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 22.7N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 25.9N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 27.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Not available. See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 95% (UP from yesterday)

UV: 12.2 EXTREME (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website. Yesterday: H 91.5°F L 79.5°F

Wind direction TODAY: ENE 10-20 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: E 15-25 mph GC

Barometer: 1012:00 mb Rising slowly Rain: Last month: 6.69 in Last 24 hrs 0.22 This month: 2.67 in

12 Rain days in July 8 Rain days in Aug 0 days since rain

2016 Season Total: 20.23 in 2017 Season Total: 22.03 in

*NOTE: Official Government record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.