Quick Update On Potential Tropical Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Later This Week

Sunday, June 2, 2013 9:05 am

by Rob Lightbown

Just a quick update on the possibility of tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite pics show an area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula that extends into the northwestern Caribbean. This system is currently expected to remain over the Yucatan through Monday before pulling out into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. From there this system may have up to 48 hours to organize before coming ashore somewhere between Tampa and Cedar Key by Friday.

Now, it should be noted that the latest GFS model points to the possibility of less wind shear and also for this system to track over the loop current making the possibility of this to become a tropical storm much greater. Up to 10 inches of rain is likely across much of south Florida this week with 4 to 8 inches of rain possible across the rest of the Florida Peninsula with the majority of that rainfall coming after Wednesday & Thursday.

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From Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services

For the 2013 Hurricane Season, I am expecting not only an active season in the category of named storms, but also active when it comes to potential landfalls along the US east coast and Gulf coast and also potential impacts across the Caribbean. Additionally, unlike last year, I’m looking at the possibility of quite a few long-tracked classic Cape Verde type storms.

The Numbers: 16 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 5 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

ENSO Conditions: I am expecting neutral ENSO conditions throughout this hurricane season. These conditions are one of the many factors that leads me to believe that we are expecting an active hurricane season.

Sea Surface Temperatures: There has been a sharp rise in sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin since March. This troubles me as it is another factor in the notion that we are looking at an active hurricane season.

European Model Seasonal Forecast: The European model ensemble precipitation map is clearly showing above average precipitation amounts from the African coast westward to the northern Caribbean and onto the southeast US coast and the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. This forecast hints at the potential for landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes across the northern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States.

So, if the European model guidance for July, August and September is even close to what it is forecasting right now, it is likely to be very busy across the northern Caribbean islands, as well as across the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States.

European Model Precipitation Forecast For July, August & September see attached

Atlantic Tripole: The Atlantic Tripole is when there is an area of warm waters in the deep Tropical Atlantic with cool waters located north of 40 North Latitude and then warm waters located north of this area of cool waters. When this type of signal occurs, it leads to increased amounts of lift and convection across the Atlantic Basin, especially between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This is just another signal that leads me to believe we are in for an active hurricane season.

Analog Years: I have found 8 analog years that are a close match to what this hurricane season may be like are 1915, 1937, 1960, 1969, 1996, 1999, 2004 & 2005.

Risk Areas: The upper level pattern over the last month or two has featured a fairly strong ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic basin. So, based on everything I have looked at, the areas I am most concerned about this hurricane season include: In the Caribbean: Belize, Cancun and Cozumel, western Cuba and the Leeward Islands. In the Gulf of Mexico: Much of the northern Gulf coast, the Florida Panhandle, western, southwestern and south Florida. For the southeast US coast: The outer banks of North Carolina.

To put it bluntly, I am expecting a high impact hurricane season on parts of the Caribbean, the northern Gulf coast, the Florida Panhandle, the Florida Peninsula and the outer banks of North Carolina.

See attached Risk Maps for the  2013 Hurricane Season

This outlook should be the catalyst to really buckle down and purchase supplies for the hurricane season. A really good website to purchase a hurricane supply kit is actually Amazon at http://www.amazon.com/Hurricane-Supplies/lm/R25A4SN4MG11DH .

If you haven’t done so already, put together your hurricane survival kit as soon as possible. In addition, please take a close look at your homeowners or renters insurance and ensure that you are properly covered for damages or total loss. Also, if you don’t have flood insurance and live in a hurricane zone, I strongly urge you to consider taking on flood insurance. Your homeowners/renters insurance does not cover for floods caused by storm surge or river flooding and it takes 30 days for the flood insurance to take effect.

2013 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:

Andrea

Barry

Chantal

Dorian

Erin

Fernand

Gabrielle

Humberto

Ingrid

Jerry

Karen

Lorenzo

Melissa

Nestor

Olga

Pablo

Rebekah

Sebastien

Tanya

Van

Wendy

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