Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential

Tropical Cyclone Two, located several hundred miles east-southeast

of the southern Windward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

1. A broad area of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula

across adjacent portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and

thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles

east and northeast of the estimated center. While the low still

lacks a well-defined center of circulation, gradual development is

expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the southern

and central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is

likely to form. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected

to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula,

the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next day or two. An

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to

investigate this system later today, if necessary. For more

information on this system, please see the High Seas Forecasts

issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued under

WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.

Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued

under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be

found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and

on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017

500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

The cloud pattern associated with the disturbance hasn’t changed

much overall, with a fairly compact cluster of deep convection near

the estimated center location. The Dvorak intensity estimate from

TAFB remains at 35 kt, and this value will be used for the advisory

intensity. The system has well-defined upper-level outflow over

the northern semicircle and vertical shear is forecast by the

dynamical guidance to remain low for the next day or so. Therefore

some intensification is forecast and the disturbance is likely to

become a tropical cyclone later today. After the system moves into

the Caribbean, it should encounter an increasingly hostile

environment of strong vertical shear associated with an upper-level

trough over the west-central Caribbean. The global models are in

good agreement on the system dissipating over the Central

Caribbean, and the official intensity forecast is slightly below

the model consensus at 48-72 h in deference to the global model

predictions.

The initial motion continues to be around 280/20 kt. The track

forecast philosophy is basically unchanged from the previous

advisory package. A well-defined ridge to the north of the

disturbance should continue to steer the system westward to

west-northwestward at a fast pace. By 48-72 hours, a slightly more

westward track is likely while the weakening system moves more with

the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is close

to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,

TVCN.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate

the system later today. Observations from the aircraft should

determine whether a well-defined center exists, i.e. whether the

disturbance has become a tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 8.4N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

12H 19/1800Z 9.3N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H 20/0600Z 10.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 20/1800Z 11.5N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 21/0600Z 12.4N 67.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 22/0600Z 13.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 23/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM PDT Mon Jun 19 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

Forecaster Landsea

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Not available. See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.