Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

The structure of the depression has changed little during the past
few hours, with the low-level center still located on the eastern
edge of a central cluster of deep convection. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt, while
the objective ADT estimate is T2.0/30 kt. The initial intensity
therefore remains 30 kt.

Low- to mid-level high pressure is currently located north of the
depression near the Baja California peninsula, and it is steering
the cyclone westward at 270/10 kt. This ridging is expected to
strengthen and build westward through the forecast period,
imparting a continued westward or even south-of-due-west motion on
the cyclone through day 5. In fact, with the exception of the
UKMET, the other track models have shifted notably southward from
the previous NHC forecast for the first 72 hours. The updated NHC
track forecast has also been shifted southward, close to the TVCN
multi-model consensus, but it is not as far south as the ECMWF,
HWRF, and HCCA models. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see
additional southward adjustments in future forecast packages.

Various shear analyses place 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over
the depression, and that shear is likely to continue for another
24-36 hours. In the meantime, the depression is moving over very
warm waters of 28-29 deg C, and the cyclone’s forecast low latitude
should keep it over warm water for the duration of the forecast
period. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to
suggest that significant deepening won’t occur for another 24-48
hours (possibly due to the ongoing shear). Gradual strengthening
is therefore forecast initially, and the NHC forecast is close to a
blend of the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first 48 hours. After
48 hours, many of the models show more significant intensification
due to lower shear, and during that period the NHC forecast is
close to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus. This new forecast
is a little higher than the previous one on days 3, 4, and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 12.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 12.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 12.1N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 12.0N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 11.9N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 11.8N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 12.2N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 12.7N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Eugene is producing minimal deep convection, with only a small
patch of cloud tops colder than -50 deg C north of the center. An
ASCAT pass at 0453 UTC indicated that the cyclone was still
producing 35-40 kt winds at the time. Since Eugene is now over sea
surface temperatures of 22-23 deg C and the circulation continues
to spin down, the advisory intensity is set at 35 kt. Significant
deep convection is unlikely to return given the cold ocean, and
Eugene is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low later
today. Maximum winds will also continue to decrease over the next
few days, and the circulation should dissipate by day 4.

Eugene is maintaining a northwestward motion of 320/8 kt, steered by
low- to mid-level high pressure located over the Baja California
peninsula. This ridging is expected to strengthen and shift
westward over the next few days, which should cause the remnant
circulation of Eugene to bend a little more to the west before
dissipation. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the
TVCN multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous
forecast.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of
the Baja California peninsula and southern California during the
next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for
additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 22.9N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 23.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 26.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 28.0N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Isolated showers are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as an upper level low pressure system interacts with a tropical over the Cayman area. The wave is expected to move west of our area this evening. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the west.