22 Aug Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 Dist Atlantic, 1 Dist CS

August 22, 2017

Aug 22 Tuesday 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and
surface observations indicate that the system has not become
better organized and tropical cyclone development is not expected
before the system moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula this
morning. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or
Thursday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth is quickly weakening this morning. Recent microwave images
show that the inner-core structure has eroded and that the low-level
center is displaced to the southwest of the mid-level center due to
moderate southwesterly shear. Subjective and objective Dvorak
T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt,
which is a blend of the various final T- and CI-numbers.

The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly weaken during the
next day or so while it moves over progressively cooler sea surface
temperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear. Kenneth should weaken to a tropical storm later today,
and become post-tropical in 2-3 days, if not sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus model, but is a little lower than the statistical guidance
and the previous advisory.

Kenneth is moving northwestward or 325/9 kt. The cyclone should
turn north-northwestward today between a mid-level ridge to its
east and a cut-off low to the west. As Kenneth weakens, it is
predicted to slow down and turn northwestward by the end of the
forecast period. The track models are in excellent agreement
through 48-72 hours, but diverge somewhat after Kenneth weakens
and becomes post-tropical. The official track forecast is close to
the GFS/ECMWF consensus and is not much different than the previous
NHC advisory.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted slightly inward
based on a couple of recent ASCAT overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 20.0N 132.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 25.1N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 26.6N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 28.7N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z 30.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

A gradual decrease in cloudiness is expected over the Cayman area from late tonight as the tropical wave, the remnant of Harvey, moves westward and over the Yucatan Peninsula. Radar image show scattered showers over the Cayman area moving northwest.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 80% (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 12.5 EXTREME (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website. Yesterday: H 86.1°F L 77.4°F

Wind direction TODAY: E 10-15 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: E 5-10 mph GC

Barometer: 1014:00 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 6.69 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 3.46 in

12 Rain days in July 9 Rain days in Aug 1 day since rain

2016 Season Total: 20.23 in 2017 Season Total: 22.82 in

*NOTE: Official Government record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.