25 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 TD, 3 Dist
25 Sep Tue 2018
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Depression Leslie, located a little over 1100 miles west-southwest
of the Azores.
1. A broad area of low pressure located about 260 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite and surface data
indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well
organized. However, this system could still become a tropical
depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and
Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong
upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and
north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system is likely to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today
and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
today. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
2. The remnants of Kirk are located about 950 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph.
This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force in gusts on its
north side. However, satellite data indicate that the system still
lacks a closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves
into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as
gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple
of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical
cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
3. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical
today after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic.
After that time, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Pasch
LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT
Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018
No significant changes have occurred with Leslie overnight. Deep
convection is generally confined to the eastern half of the
circulation as dry air continues to wrap into the western portion
of the cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the circulation has
become stretched from north to south, likely due to the approach of
a cold front that is currently located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of Leslie. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based
on the earlier ASCAT data.
The cold front is expected to merge with Leslie by tonight, causing
extratropical transition. While transitioning, Leslie is forecast
to strengthen for a couple of days due to significant baroclinic
forcing, and the NHC intensity forecast takes the peak winds just
below hurricane force at 36 and 48 hours. Later in the week, the
extratropical system is expected to cut off and gradually lose its
frontal features. Although this will likely cause some weakening,
it should also allow the system to regain subtropical
characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is fairly similar to
the previous one and near the IVCN consensus model. This forecast
is also in fairly good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models,
which are usually reliable intensity models for large subtropical
systems like Leslie. Based on the latest guidance, Leslie is now
expected to transition back to a subtropical cyclone in 96 hours.
Leslie has jogged to the southeast during the past several hours,
but an eastward to northeastward motion is expected during the next
day or so as Leslie makes its extratropical transition. After that
time, a turn to the north is expected followed by a slow westward
motion when Leslie cuts off from the mid-latitude flow. The models
are in fairly good agreement on this looping motion, and the NHC
track forecast follows the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 31.9N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 32.1N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 32.7N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0600Z 36.1N 41.1W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0600Z 36.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0600Z 35.3N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH…SUBTROPICAL STORM
120H 30/0600Z 35.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 25 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twenty-E, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
1. A trough of low pressure located a little over 1400 miles
east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized shower
activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible
through the end of the week while it moves westward into the central
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.
Forecaster Roberts
Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook
Weather in Cayman
SYNOPSIS
Light to moderate winds and seas are also expected over the next 24 hours due to a weak pressure gradient across the northwest Caribbean. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the west.
Humidity: 81% (UP from yesterday)
UV: 10.7 VERY HIGH (DOWN from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See weather forecast top right of website. Yesterday: H 91.6°F L 79.0°F
Wind direction TODAY: E 10-20 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 10-20 mph GC
Barometer: 1015.20 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 1.83 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 12.21 in 3 days since rain 12 rain days in September
2017 Season Total: 62.94 in 2018 Season Total: 36.22 in
Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)
All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in September 8.2 in. Average temperature in September: 77°F to 90°F
Sea Temperature in September 84°F
MOON:
Near Full Moon (Waning Gibbous)
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN SEPTEMBER 2018 – Click to enlarge
LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
Moon info and graphic:
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown
Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat
Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.
Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/
Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
