26 Jun Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report

June 26, 2019

26 Jun Wed 2019

Tropical Report

ATLANTIC

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Brennan

EASTERN PACIFIC

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression One-E, located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.


Public Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.


Forecaster Latto/Zelinsky


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3

The overall convective pattern of the cyclone has changed little since the previous advisory. However, passive microwave images indicate that the low-level center has become less distinct and that the inner-core convection has become ragged. In addition, the coldest cloud tops have migrated from north through east to now south of the center during the past 12 hours, another indication that the inner-core of the depression is undergoing some structural changes. Although no ASCAT wind data are available over the cyclone's core, a 0417Z ASCAT-C pass did catch the western portion the circulation and only showed northerly winds of 5-10 kt within 30 nmi of the center, which suggests that the surface wind field might not be as well developed as the circulation aloft is.

The initial position and the 275/13-kt motion are based on a blend of microwave and conventional fixes, and also continuity with the previous motion vector. The latest track model guidance is in decent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next few days as a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge holds steady to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but south of the
previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, the 00Z ECMWF model continues to show a more southward dip in the track during the next 24 h. That is a viable alternate track scenario if the center redevelops farther south closer to the coldest cloud tops later this morning.

There is a narrow window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 h or so while the cyclone remains over warm water and in low vertical wind shear conditions.
By 36-48 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs and into a more stable environment that is not conducive for generating vigorous convection despite the favorable low-shear conditions forecast at that time. The combination of cooler waters, drier mid-level air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear shear are expected to induce steady weakening in 48-96 hours, with dissipation forecast by 120 h. 
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 15.5N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 16.4N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.0N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z 18.8N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

Isolated showers along with light to moderate easterly winds and seas are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as a upper level low lingers over the northwest Caribbean. Further east, a tropical wave just east of Jamaica will move into the Cayman area tomorrow morning, which may support additional showers. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the west.

Humidity: 74% (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 11.5 EXTREME (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s expected temperatures – 78°F to 91°F. Yesterday: H 88.9° F L 78.4°F
Winds: Today ENE 10-20 mph Tonight ENE 10-15 mph
Barometer: 1015.2 0 mb Steady

Rain: Last month: 3.76 in

Last 24 hrs 1.41 in This month: 1.58 in

0 days since rain

5 rain days in June

2018 Season Total: 44.03 in

2019 Season Total: 14.52 in

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in June 7.2 in.

Average temperature in June: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in June: 84°F

MOON: 39% illumination