Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017

400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on

microwave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional

satellite imagery. The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric

than 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite

estimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the

improving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind

speed is set to 70 kt. Dora has about 12-24 hours to further

strengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more

dry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to

decay. Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the

weakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing

the cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids.

Since the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally

inhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than

the model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the

previous NHC forecast. Given the spread in the guidance, this is a

low confidence forecast.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level

ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical

cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora

should turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and

becomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward

since the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast

follows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a

trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast

for that time.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the

tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of

coastal southwestern Mexico through this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 105.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL

96H 30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 01/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Blake

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Isolated showers along with light to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas is expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as a tropical wave currently over Jamaica moves west. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving west.