Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the

far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Some development of this

system is possible later this week before environmental

conditions become unfavorable for development over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Dora, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the

Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a

few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some

gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend

while it moves west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017

300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Over the past several hours, the satellite presentation of Dora has

degraded with cooling eye temperatures and breaks in the eyewall

convection noted in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak estimates

are dropping and support a wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory.

Dora is moving into cooler waters and a drier airmass, which should

cause steady weakening over the next couple of days. Model guidance

has come into better agreement on Dora becoming a tropical storm

later today and a tropical depression by Thursday. The NHC

intensity prediction is on the low side of the guidance since ASCAT

confirmed Dora is a rather small tropical cyclone, and these types

of systems are known to disappear rather quickly in the cold eastern

Pacific waters. It would not be surprising if Dora dissipated

faster than shown below.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A large deep-layer

ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a

west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After

that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally

westward in the low-level flow before opening up into a trough by

day 4. Guidance has shifted slightly northward during this cycle,

perhaps due to a deeper model representation of Dora at the current

time. The new NHC track forecast reflects that trend and lies a bit

north of the previous one, close to the latest multi-model

consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 01/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Blake

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Isolated showers along with light to moderate easterly winds and seas are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as a tropical wave moves over our area this afternoon. The wave is expected to move west of our area this evening. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving west.