Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A sharp trough of low pressure, located over the northwestern
Bahamas, continues to produce an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected
due to hostile upper-level winds, the disturbance is forecast to
move westward at 25 to 30 mph for the next day or so, spreading
locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds in brief squalls
across portions of the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, and
across much of South Florida later morning and continuing into the
afternoon. Additional information on this disturbance can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Tropical Analysis and
Forecast Branch, and also in forecast products and statements issued
by your local weather service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea within the next few days. Some slow development of
this system is possible by the weekend while the low drifts
northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Additional information on the Bahamas disturbance can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located near the Gu lf of Tehuantepec have changed little during the
past several hours. However, environmental conditions are expected
to become conducive for some additional development of this
disturbance over the next couple of days while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward or westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart