31 Aug Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 TC.
31 Aug Fri 2018
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located a couple of hundred miles east-
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers from Hispaniola eastward to
the Leeward Islands and the adjacent waters are associated with a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This activity
is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during
the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less
hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
Forecaster Avila
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018
Even though the circulation is gradually becoming less elongated,
there is still relatively little deep convection near the estimated
center of circulation. Instead, most of the convection remains
confined to the monsoon trough southwest of the center, where
low-level convergence is strongest. Therefore, the system is not
quite yet being designated as a tropical cyclone.
Global model fields suggest that the low should detach from the
monsoon trough within the next 12 hours, which would likely allow
deep convection to form closer to the center. Assuming that
happens, the system is also forecast to strengthen and become a
tropical storm by this afternoon while it approaches the southern
Cabo Verde Islands. Although vertical shear is expected to be
relatively light for much of the forecast period, sea surface
temperatures ahead of the system are marginal, and the low will
likely move over a minimum of oceanic heat content in 48-72 hours.
Adding on top of that a drier mid-level environment, only gradual
strengthening is anticipated through day 5. A majority of the
intensity models agree on this scenario, with the exception of the
HWRF model, which brings the system close to major hurricane
strength at the end of the forecast period. Since that solution is
discounted at the moment, the NHC intensity forecast is below the
HCCA guidance and closest to the intensity consensus.
The low appears to have turned west-northwestward with an initial
motion of 285/10 kt. A mid-level high centered west of the Canary
Islands should continue to steer the disturbance west-northwestward
at a faster clip for the next 4 days or so. By the end of the
forecast period, a weakness in the ridge over the eastern Atlantic
could cause the system to turn northwestward. The new NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous one during the first
72 hours and then a little to the west on days 4 and 5 to better
match the latest guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 13.6N 21.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/1800Z 14.2N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH…TROPICAL STORM
24H 01/0600Z 14.8N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 15.5N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 16.2N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.4N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norman, located more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Forecaster Roberts
Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook
Weather in Cayman
SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers and some thunder are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as an upper level trough continues to enhance localized showers over the northwest Caribbean. Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the southwest.
Humidity: 75% (DOWN from yesterday)
UV: 11.9 EXTREME (UP from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See weather forecast top right of website. Yesterday: H 90.2°F L 78.2°F
Wind direction TODAY: E 10-20 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: ESE 10-15 mph GC
Barometer: 1012.50 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 1.83 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 4.71 in 2 days since rain 15 rain days in August
2017 Season Total: 62.94 in 2018 Season Total: 24.00 in
Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)
All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in August 6.7 in. Average temperature in August: 77°F to 90°F
Sea Temperature in August 84°F
76% Waning Gibbous
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN AUGUST 2018 – Click to enlarge
LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
Moon info and graphic:
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown
Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat
Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.
Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/
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