31 July Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, TS Emily, 1 dist in Atlantic

July 31, 2017

July 31 Monday 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Emily, located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico just offshore of the west-central Florida coast.

1. Shower activity remains limited in association with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur over the next several days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Cangialosi

DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY… …TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

Tropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical
Storm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical
Storm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida.

Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate
average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation
center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a
standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent
surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. Little change in strength is
expected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow
weakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

The initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track or reasoning. Emily is expected to make
landfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning
area by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the
central Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be
possible in the coastal waters within the warning area.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard
Intermediate Public advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1200Z 27.7N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Irwin, located more than a thousand miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific Ocean are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Irwin finally appears to be suffering from the effects of cooler
water. Deep convection associated with the cyclone has decreased
in coverage overnight, but the convection that remains is organized
in a band over the eastern portion of the circulation. Dvorak
T-numbers have started to decrease, and a blend of the various T-
and CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 50 kt.
Irwin will be moving over SSTs of 22 to 23 deg C during the next 12
to 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken.
In fact, Irwin is likely to degenerate to a remnant low in about
24 hours, when the deep convection dissipates. The global models
suggest that the low will dissipate in about 72 hours.

Irwin is moving north-northwestward at about 11 kt. The cyclone is
expected to continue on a north-northwestward heading today, then
slow down and turn northwestward on Tuesday as it moves around the
remnant circulation of Hilary. The latest track guidance is in
good agreement and no significant change from the previous NHC
track forecast was needed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 20.7N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 22.4N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 24.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z 26.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 27.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Isolated showers along with light southeasterly winds and slight seas are expected to continue across the Cayman Islands for the next 24 hours in association with a slack pressure gradient across the northwest Caribbean. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area which are moving towards the west. At 5 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 6 [NOW TS EMILY] which is located very near Tampa Florida. This storm poses no threat to the Cayman Islands. For further information on this storm, please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 87% (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 11.9 EXTREME (UP from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website. Yesterday: H 93.3°F L 79.4°F

Wind direction TODAY: ESE 10-15 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: ESE 10-15 mph GC

Barometer: 1014:00 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 4.64 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 6.69 in

10 Rain days in June 12 Rain days in July 3 days since rain

2016 Season Total: 20.23 in 2017 Season Total: 19.36 in

*NOTE: Official Government record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.