7 Jul Sat 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes at 0136 UTC and 0216 UTC
revealed the the depression has not yet strengthened, and its
circulation remains very broad. Although the larger-scale
circulation of the cyclone is well-defined, it lacks an inner core,
and the center of circulation consists of a wide area of light
winds. The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based primarily
on the ASCAT data, and this is also supported by the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB.

While the cyclone was nearly devoid of deep convection for several
hours late last night and early this morning, a broken convective
band has since developed to the south of the low-level center. This
could indicate that the depression is beginning to become better
organized and will begin to slowly strengthen. Warm SSTs will
likely allow the depression to gradually strengthen through the next
3 to 4 days, however moderate shear and the lack of an existing
inner-core will likely limit the intensification rate. The
intensity guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday,
and now most of the models show the cyclone nearing or reaching
hurricane strength. No change has been made to the NHC intensity
forecast, which is now near the middle of the guidance and very
close to HCCA throughout the forecast.

Nighttime Proxy-Vis imagery has been very helpful in tracking the
depression this morning, which has slowed down and is now estimated
to be moving north-northwestward or 345/4 kt. For the first 48 h,
the track models remain in fairly good agreement that the cyclone
will meander off the coast of the Carolinas, as it becomes trapped
in the light steering flow between a cold front passing to the north
and the subtropical ridge to the east. Beyond that time, there has
been a significant change in the track models, all of which now
depict a much faster northeastward motion beginning on Tuesday as
the cyclone recurves ahead of a mid-level trough approaching from
the northwest. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to
show a faster motion at day 4 and 5, it is now much slower than all
of the global models in an effort to maintain continuity from our
earlier forecasts. If this trend continues, larger changes will
need to be made to the track forecast in future advisories.

Most of the guidance continues to suggest that the
tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur
primarily to the east of the cyclone’s center well away from the
U.S. coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the
U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina
coast should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 33.2N 74.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 33.6N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 33.8N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 33.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 34.0N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 37.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 41.0N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

BERYL A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Although there has been no recent microwave imagery to help examine
the inner-core structure of Beryl, the small tropical cyclone
appears to have lost some organization since yesterday afternoon.
Shortwave GOES-16 infrared imagery suggests that the center is near
the northwestern portion of the small convective mass. Dvorak data
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have dropped to T3.5 while CI
numbers support keeping Beryl a 65-kt hurricane, but this could
be generous.

The hurricane seems to have finally gained some latitude and
the initial motion estimate is west-northwest or 285/12 kt. Beryl
is located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge that is
anchored over the west-central Atlantic. This should keep the
cyclone on a general west-northwestward heading with some increase
in forward speed over the next few days. The track models did
not change much this cycle and only slight adjustments were made
to the previous NHC forecast. The official forecast is once
again along the southern side of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the UKMET and FSSE models.

Beryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear
environment today, but an increase in westerly shear is expected on
Sunday, and the shear is forecast to become quite strong as Beryl
moves over the eastern Caribbean early next week. As a result, the
new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength
during the next 24-36 h, but predicts steady weakening after that
time. The updated intensity forecast is lower than the previous
advisory due to the lower initial intensity and less bullish
intensity guidance. The new NHC forecast also shows Beryl
degenerating into an open trough in 3 to 4 days, which is in good
agreement within the global models that all predict this to occur
while the system moves across the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of
whether the system has a closed circulation, it is likely to
continue producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
over portions of the Greater Antilles next week.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the
chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and
rainfall continue to increase. Hurricane and tropical storm
watches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser
Antilles, and additional watches could be required for other
islands today.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 11.1N 49.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 11.7N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 12.6N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 13.7N 57.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 14.8N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.2N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 7 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

Light to moderate easterly winds and seas are expected over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure lingers north of the Caribbean. Radar images show few scattered showers in and around the Cayman area which are moving towards the west. At 4 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Depression 3. Hurricane Beryl was located near 11.1 N 49.8 W or about 830 miles east southeast of the Lesser Antilles and is moving towards the west northwest at 14 mph with max sustained winds of 75 mph. WHILE THIS STORM POSES NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.

 

Humidity: 85%  (UP from yesterday)

UV: 12.1   EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – Not available.  See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 90.2°F  L 80.3°F

Wind direction TODAY: ENE 10-15 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 10-15 mph GC

Barometer: 1015.90 mb  Steady  Rain:   Last month: 11.49 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month:  0.02 in  2 days since rain 1 rain day in July

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 Season Total: 17.48 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in July 6.9 in.  Average temperature in July: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in July 84°F

 

Moon illumination: 38% Waning Gibbous