9 Jul Mon 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast
of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants
of Beryl is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the northern Leeward
Islands. The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
for the next day or so, passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico today, and over Hispaniola tonight. Unfavorable upper-level
winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during
the next day or two, but environmental conditions could become
somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this
week when the system is forecast to turn northward over the Bahamas
and the western Atlantic. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
available on the Web at
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

CHRIS MEANDERING WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS… …EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

After the expansion of deep convection during the evening it
appears that some drier air has been entrained into the
circulation which has caused a general warming of the cloud tops
and some erosion of the deep convection overnight. However, the
banding remains well organized and the overall structure of the
cyclone has not changed appreciably. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system has found that the
minimum pressure has dropped to 999 mb, but the flight-level and
SFMR winds still support an initial intensity of 50 kt.

Recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Chris is
drifting southward. Steering currents are expected to remain
quite weak during the next 36 hours as Chris is situated between a
couple of mid-level highs and a mid- to upper-level trough to its
northeast. By late Tuesday, a deep-layer trough moving across the
Great Lakes region should begin to lift Chris out toward the
northeast. The cyclone is predicted to accelerate northeastward
during the remainder of the forecast period as it gets caught in
strong southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The
track models are in good agreement on this general scenario but
there are some differences in how fast Chris accelerates over the
western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted
slightly northwestward to be in better agreement with the latest
guidance, and it remains near the model consensus to account for
the forward speed differences among the various track models.

The cyclone should be able to mix out the dry air that it entrained
while it is located over warm water and in light to moderate
vertical wind shear conditions. This should allow strengthening
during the next couple of days, but there could be some upwelling
beneath the slow moving cyclone which could temper the rate of
intensification. The new NHC track forecast shows a slightly slower
rate of deepening during the next 24 to 36 h, but still forecasts
Chris to become a hurricane later today or tonight, and reach about
the same peak intensity as shown in the previous advisory. The
hurricane should become extratropical by 96 h, and the global models
indicate that steady weakening will occur after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 32.4N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 32.4N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 32.5N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 34.2N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 39.0N 66.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 45.5N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 49.5N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

Light to moderate east to northeasterly winds and seas are expected over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure lingers north of the Caribbean. Radar images show no showers over the Cayman area.

 

Humidity: 83%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 12.1   EXTREME  (UP from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – Not available.  See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 90.2°F  L 77.5°F

Wind direction TODAY: ENE 10-20 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: NE 10-15 mph GC

Barometer: 1016.70 mb Rising slowly  Rain:   Last month: 11.49 in    Last 24 hrs 0.03 This month:  0.19 in  0 days since rain 3 rain days in July

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 Season Total: 17.65 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in July 6.9 in.  Average temperature in July: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in July 84°F

 

Moon illumination: 18% Waning Gibbous