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9 July 2017 Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report
Jul 9 Sun 2017
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017
Although it hasn’t cleared out entirely, an eye has persisted
in infrared satellite imagery since the last advisory, and cloud
tops colder than -70C have at times completely encircled the eye.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77 kt and
T5.0/90 kt, respectively, at 0600 UTC, and an average of these
numbers was mirrored by an objective ADT estimate of T4.8/85 kt.
Eugene’s rapid intensification phase continues, and the hurricane is
now estimated to be category 2 with 85-kt winds.
Eugene continues on a northwestward trajectory with an initial
motion of 325/7 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging is expected to remain
anchored over the western United States for a few more days, while
a progressive shortwave trough approaches the coast of California.
This pattern should keep Eugene on a northwestward path for the
entire five-day forecast period, with a faster forward speed
anticipated from 12-36 hours. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, especially through 72 hours, and the NHC official
forecast has been nudged westward toward the various consensus
models. By the end of the forecast period, the official forecast
favors the weaker, westward-leaning GFS and ECMWF models.
little difficult to know how long this period of rapid
intensification will last. The hurricane is expected to remain in
a low-shear environment for much of the forecast period, and it
will continue to traverse waters warmer than 26C for another 24-36
hours. Therefore, continued strengthening is likely, and Eugene
could attain major hurricane intensity before it reaches colder
water. The new NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward and
continues to be at the upper bound of the intensity models, closest
to the SHIPS guidance through 36 hours. Weakening should be rather
fast after 36 hours as Eugene moves over quickly decreasing sea
surface temperatures, and the global models suggest that the
cyclone will cease producing deep convection by 96 hours. At that
point in the forecast Eugene is expected to be a remnant low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 15.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.3N 121.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 26.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
Weather In Cayman
Synopsis
Isolated showers are expected across the Cayman area today as an upper level trough lingers over Cuba. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the west.
Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared
Humidity: 93% (UP from yesterday)
UV: 11.8 EXTREME (UP from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website. Yesterday: H 88.3°F L 77.1°F
Wind direction TODAY: ENE 10-15 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE: 5-10 mph GC
Barometer: 1014:00 mb Falling slowly Rain: Last month: 4.64 in Last 24 hrs 2.55 in This month: 4.35 in
10 Rain days in June 5 Rain days in July 0 day since rain
2016 Season Total: 20.23 in 2017 Season Total: 16.98 in
*NOTE: Official Government record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in July 6.9 in. Average temperature in July: 77°F to 90°F
Sea Temperature in July 84°F
Moon: 100% illuminated
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN JULY 2017 – Click to enlarge
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
For Tropical Weather go to:
National Hurricane Center at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Mike’s Weather Page at: http://www.s
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