From Dr Jeff Masters Weather Underground

The Philippines Islands are bracing for the impact of Typhoon Rammasun, the islands’ first typhoon since the devastating strike by Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. Haiyan was the deadliest and most expensive natural disaster in Philippines history.

**Fortunately, Rammasun is much weaker–a mere Category 1 storm. Top winds were 85 mph (1-minute average from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center), and the central pressure was 975 mb (as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency) at 8 am EDT on Monday morning–a far cry from the incredible 195 mph sustained winds and central pressure of 895 mb of Haiyan at its peak.

Rammasun is intensifying, though. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed a steady increase in the intensity and areal coverage of the typhoon’s heavy thunderstorms. With wind shear a light 5 – 10 knots and Sea Surface Temperatures a very warm 30°C, further intensification is likely until landfall occurs.

Philippines radar showed the outer spiral bands of Rammasun were already affecting Samar Island, where Haiyan initially made landfall. The core of Rammasun will pass north of Samar Island and strike the main Philippines island of Luzon, with the center passing very near the capital of Manila early Wednesday (local time). The main concern will be flash flooding and mudslides over Luzon and Samar, but wind damage also has the potential to be considerable, since the typhoon is passing over the most heavily populated part of Luzon.

After crossing Luzon, Rammasun will have the opportunity to re-strengthen over the South China Sea before making a second landfall in China near Hainan Island on Friday. Our two top track models, the GFS and European, predict a landfall in China between 03 – 12 UTC on Friday.

Figure 1. Rainfall rate of Typhoon Rammasun as estimated by a microwave sounding instrument on NOAA’s F-18 polar orbiting satellite at 6:44 am EDT Monday July 14, 2014. Rainfall rates in excess of 1″/hour (orange colors) were indicated in the northern eyewall of the typhoon.

Quiet in the Atlantic

None of the reliable models for predicting genesis of Atlantic tropical cyclones is predicting development over the next five days, and there are no threat areas to discuss. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear, and SSTs are 0.2°C below average in the Hurricane Main Development region between the coast of Africa and Central America, between 10°N – 20°N. If we get another tropical storm this month, the most likely area for formation would be off the Southeast U.S. coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.

Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

For more on this story go to: http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2725

** Since this was written Typhoon Rammasun is strengthening while hammering the central and northern Philippines – it is now at 5:30PM ET a category 3 NOT category 1. See updated story that follows”

Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Ripping Through the Philippines; Metro Manila Bracing for Impact

From Weather.com

– Typhoon Rammasun is strengthening while hammering the central and northern Philippines

– At least one dead; thousands of homes reportedly damaged

– Metro Manila upgraded to the equivalent of a typhoon warning; Haiyan (Yolanda) damage zones largely spared

– Storm surge flooding, damaging winds, flash flooding and mudslides are all threats through Wednesday

– Rammasun is a threat to southern China and northern Vietnam late this week.

Thousands of houses are reported damaged and hundreds of thousands of Filipinos have evacuated as deadly Typhoon Rammasun continues to rip through the Philippines after undergoing a last-minute spike in intensity.

(MORE: At Least One Dead in Philippines Typhoon)

Typhoon Rammasun (also known as Glenda in the Philippines) made its first landfall in the Philippines Tuesday while intensifying. The typhoon will continue to move west across that island nation through Wednesday, bringing a dangerous combination of damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and storm surge.

Philippine forecasters have upgraded Metro Manila and nearby areas to the second-highest possible level of alert in anticipation of potential typhoon-force winds within 18 hours.

As of 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday in the U.S., maximum sustained winds remain at an estimated 125 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center based in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. This makes Rammasun the equivalent of a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Winds Increasing in Metro Manila as Millions Braces for Typhoon

As Rammasun churns west-northwestward at a forward speed of 16 mph, it has its sights set on Manila, the nation’s capital and the center of a metropolitan area with a population of 12 million people.

At 11 p.m. local time (11 a.m. EDT) Tuesday, the national weather agency in the Philippines, PAGASA, hoisted a number-three level public storm warning signal, the second highest such alert, for Metro Manila. The metropolis joined a long list of other areas on and near Luzon Island in the warning, which is issued when wind gusts of approximately 65 to 115 mph (101 to 185 kph) are expected within 18 hours.

Satellite imagery indicated the eye of Rammasun was approximately 50 miles southeast of Manila as of 3:30 a.m. Wednesday local time. The center is expected to pass within 25 miles of the capital city of Manila Wednesday morning, local time, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon.

Based on current trends, it appears the eye will pass slightly south of Metro Manila, making a direct strike on the provinces of Batangas and Cavite. The two provinces, which are not officially part of Metro Manila, have a combined population of over 5.3 million people in an area roughly the size of Delaware.

An Instagram video depicted total blackness and the sound of wind-blown debris in the inland town of Malvar in Batangas province around 4:30 a.m. local time Wednesday as the typhoon’s eyewall moved in:

Winds continue to increase in the capital. As of 4 a.m. Wednesday local time, Ninoy Aquino International Airport was reporting a northerly wind of 29 mph with gusts to 44 mph. This marked a sharp increase from the 9-mph wind reported just six hours earlier. The airport is just south of central Manila.

Just northeast of Manila, trees have been blown down in Quezon City, the largest city proper in the Philippines.

PAGASA is warning of the potential for storm surge of up to 3 meters (10 feet) in areas of onshore winds near the path of Rammasun’s eye.

Thousands of people in Metro Manila live in makeshift shanty towns, highly vulnerable to high winds and flooding from tropical cyclones, according to a 2013 Daily Mail article.

First Impacts: Albay Province

Rammasun made its first landfall Tuesday morning (U.S. time) over Albay province in the southeastern part of the northern Philippines.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, the first landfall occurred at 5 p.m. local time over the municipality of Rapu-Rapu. This was followed by a second landfall at 6:30 p.m. in nearby Tabaco City, on the main island of Luzon.

After emerging over the Ragay Gulf, the typhoon’s eye made a third landfall on Luzon over the Bondoc Peninsula of Quezon province near Catanauan, about 115 miles southeast of Manila, at midnight local time Tuesday night.

The city of Daet, on the northern coast of southeastern Luzon in the province of Camarines Norte, reported a sustained easterly wind of 52 mph at 11 p.m. local time Tuesday as the eye of the typhoon passed south and southwest of the city over the Ragay Gulf.

The Philippines are 12 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time in the U.S.

Storm chaser James Reynolds traveled to Legazpi, the provincial capital of Albay, and experienced both the eye and eyewall of Rammasun (Glenda) Tuesday.

Legazpi reported 7.13 inches of rain in 6 hours Tuesday as the typhoon passed through. Sustained winds peaked at 51 mph, according to official observations.

Satellite image of Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) as its eye moved over Polangui, Albay province in the Philippines around 1000 UTC (6 p.m. local time) Tuesday, July 15, 2014. Thousands of homes were reportedly damaged in Polangui.

Heavy Rainfall Reported, Flash Flooding Expected

Torrential rainfall has been reported in areas raked by Rammasun’s eyewall, especially in the Eastern Visayas region. The city of Catarman reported 11.25 inches (285.8 mm) of rain in the 36 hours ending at 8 p.m. local time Tuesday. Rammasun’s eye passed just north of the city, leaving Catarman in a band of torrential rainfall for hours.

Farther south, Catbalogan reported 9.25 inches in the same time frame.

In general, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides will also be a threat as Rammasun moves across the northern and central Philippines.

Rammasun is taking a similar path with similar intensity to Typhoon Xangsane (Milenyo in the Philippines) in late September 2006. Xangsane claimed 197 lives in the Philippines, with major damage in at least 12 cities and 116 municipalities, according to the Philippines National Red Cross. Xangsane passed directly over metro Manila, knocking down trees and billboards and knocking out power for up to six days over much of Luzon.

Haiyan Recovery Zone Mostly Spared

Rammasun is the strongest typhoon to landfall in the Philippines since Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the central Philippines eight months ago. The eyewall of Rammasun passed well north of the area devastated from Haiyan, including the city of Tacloban, though breezy conditions and some outer rainbands have brushed the area.

Over 2,100 people, many of whom still living in tents after Haiyan, were evacuated to the Tacloban Astrodome, given the wind forecast.

According to The Weather Channel hurricane expert Michael Lowry, storm surge flooding up to 6-10 feet was expected along coastal areas of the eastern Visayas and central Luzon, along with some wind gusts over 100 mph.

Three homes in southern Leyte province, south of Tacloban were reported destroyed by high seas, according to Inquirer.net.

At least 4,000 ferry passengers and 50 vessels have been stranded in ports, according to the South China Morning Post.

PAGASA has named this system Tropical Storm Glenda. PAGASA uses its own separate list of names for tropical cyclones crossing the Philippines and adjacent waters. Rammasun is Thai for the God of thunder.

INTERACTIVE FORECAST PATH

South China, Vietnam Late-Week Threat

Rammasun should emerge into the South China Sea later Wednesday, local time, then strengthen again given low vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures.

According to the latest forecast from Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Rammasun is expected to make landfall in southern China near Hainan Island (population 8.9 million) Friday or perhaps early Saturday, local time. Rammasun may be either a Category 2 or Category 3 equivalent typhoon by its second landfall.

The current center of the forecast cone shown above is generally south of Hong Kong, home to over seven million residents. However, this forecast path could shift in later updates, so all interests in Hong Kong need to pay close attention over the next few days. Furthermore, if Rammasun’s wind field becomes large, significant impact could be felt in Hong Kong, despite the center tracking well to the south.

Rammasun may go on to make a final landfall in far northern parts of Vietnam, including Hanoi, perhaps still as a Category 1 or Category 2 equivalent typhoon Saturday.

Philippines a Frequent TargetThe Philippines are among the most tropical cyclone-prone countries on Earth. Four typhoons made landfall in the Philippines in 2013, the most destructive of which was Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

Haiyan was the third Category 5 typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines since 2010, according to Weather Underground’s director of meteorology, Dr. Jeff Masters. Conversely, only three hurricanes in recorded history have made a Category 5 U.S landfall

For more on this story go to: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/typhoon-rammasun-philippines-china-20140714