TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.6N 61.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM SW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 20 MI…35 KM NNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 61.3 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move away
from the Windward Islands through this evening, and be over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center. Winds of 39 mph (63
km/h) were recently reported on Barbados, and a weather station on
Martinique recently observed sustained winds of 47 mph (75 km/h)
with gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from recent reconnaissance
data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within
the warning area this afternoon and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Matthew: Emergency Message for U.S. Citizens: Tropical Weather Alert
27 September, 2016
The U.S. Embassy to Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean alerts U.S. citizens to the potential development of a tropical depression or storm in the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has forecast that this weather system may potentially impact a number of islands in the Eastern Caribbean. There are currently no watches or warnings in effect for any islands, although that is expected to change as this weather system continues to move west.

According to the NHC, showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a well-organized tropical wave which, as of 8 a.m on Tuesday, September 27, was located about 475 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later today or tonight. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the Lesser Antilles, beginning Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday.

We advise U.S. citizens to monitor local and regional emergency management organizations for updates on the situation and for information on emergency preparedness, including the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA).

U.S. citizens are also advised to keep the following emergency phone numbers handy:

Anguilla – 911
Antigua and Barbuda –911
Barbados – 211
British Virgin Islands – 999 or 911
Dominica – 999
French West Indies (Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy) – 17
Grenada – 911
Montserrat – 999 or 911
St. Lucia – 999 or 911
St. Kitts and Nevis – 911
St. Martin – 911
St. Vincent and the Grenadines – 999 or 911
The U.S. Embassy in Bridgetown is closely monitoring this situation, and strongly encourage U.S. citizens in the Eastern Caribbean to do so as well. Please share this message with other U.S. citizens who might not have received it.
The Consular Section of the U.S. Embassy in Bridgetown, Barbados, can be reached during regular business hours (M-F, 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.) by telephone at (246) 227-4000; by fax at (246) 431-0179; and by e-mail at [email protected]. After hours, in case of emergency, a duty officer can be reached by calling the Embassy switchboard at (246) 227-4000 and dialing ext. 2210 to speak to the Marine security guard on duty.

For more information on how to be prepared, please see the Department of State’s travel alert for the 2016 Hurricane/Typhoon Season.

From Caribbean360

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Tuesday September 27, 2016 – The forecast is crystal clear that a well-organized tropical wave which has tropical storm potential will affect the Windward Islands today.

But where will it go from there and which islands will it affect?

Here’s what forecasters with the Weather Channel are projecting.

First Stop: Windward Islands

Steered by the subtropical ridge of high pressure known as the Bermuda-Azores high, this system will arrive in the Windward Islands, bringing showers, some locally heavy rain and strong winds beginning late today or tomorrow.

Some bands of rain may reach as far north as the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and may persist into Thursday in the Windward Islands.

It should be noted this disturbance is starting out at a fairly low latitude, just north of 10 degrees. Therefore, locally heavy rain and gusty winds are expected in such locations as St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, perhaps even coastal Venezuela.

Next: Eastern Caribbean Sea

By Thursday, the system will be in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Again, given the southern track, there could be locally heavy rain and strong winds in the typically drier “ABC Islands” – Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao – as well as parts of coastal Venezuela and Colombia Thursday through early Saturday.

Beyond that, uncertainty is still very high on this system’s future.

First of all, west to northwest winds aloft over the Caribbean Sea are providing some wind shear, which is typically hostile to the development and intensification of tropical cyclones. Assuming the shear diminishes, the “future Matthew” should be able to intensify in the Caribbean Sea.

In general, the “future Matthew” has been hinted at making a northwest or even northward turn in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, which could threaten Hispañola, Jamaica, or parts of eastern Cuba as soon as early next week.

Again, the timing and track of this remain uncertain at this time.

For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and The Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

For more on this story go to: http://www.caribbean360.com/news/future-tropical-storm-matthew-will-go-islands-will-affect#ixzz4LUtNnr8K