Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad low pressure system centered a few hundred miles southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for gradual development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as
the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Fernanda has not intensified during the past few hours. The
convective tops surrounding the eye have warmed up a little, but
the overall cloud pattern continues to be very impressive. The
Dvorak T-numbers are 6.0 and 6.5 indicating that winds are still
around 125 kt.

Fernanda has the possibility of some strengthening during the
next 12 to 24 hours since the hurricane is embedded within light
shear and moving over warm waters. After that time, the hurricane
will likely maintain the same intensity for a couple of days, but a
weakening trend should then begin as the circulation of the cyclone
encounters cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
forecast continues to be above the intensity guidance, and does not
vary much from the previous one.

The hurricane is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt.
The cyclone is being steered by a deep layer of easterlies
associated with a strong subtropical ridge. A general westward
track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is anticipated
as the hurricane approaches the western portion of the ridge over
the next 5 days. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC
forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 121.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 11.1N 123.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 11.8N 125.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 12.5N 128.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 13.5N 131.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 15.0N 135.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Isolated showers and thunder are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as an upper level low pressure system lingers over the northwest Caribbean and interacts with a tropical wave moving across our area. Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area which continue to drift towards the west.