Aug 5 Saturday 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Cabo Verde Islands
southwestward across the tropical Atlantic are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure. This system remains poorly
organized, but environmental conditions are expected to become a
little more favorable for this system to consolidate, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves toward the
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the south-central Caribbean Sea. The wave is moving westward
at 15 mph and development, if any, during the next day or two
will likely to be slow. Conditions could become a little more
favorable for tropical cyclone formation early next week if the
disturbance moves over the southern Bay of Campeche. There is also a
possibility that the wave moves over Central America, and in that
case no development is anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017

The center of the depression moved over Socorro Island, Mexico
between 0400 and 0500 UTC. A Mexican Navy automatic weather
station located in that island reported a well defined wind shift
associated with the circulation and 20 to 25 kt winds in gusts. A
recent ASCAT pass shows a few vectors of 30 kt, and this will be the
intensity in this advisory.

The depression has been decapitated by strong upper-level easterly
winds, and the low-level and mid-level centers are now separated by
at least 230 n mi. There are only a few patches of deep convection
left. Since the shear environment is forecast to persist or even
increase, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a
remnant low in about 12 hours or so.

The low-level swirl associated with the center of the depression is
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt around the
periphery of a subtropical ridge. Since no changes in the steering
pattern is forecast by global models, this general motion is
expected to continue until dissipation in a day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 19.2N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.0N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 20.6N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 21.2N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila