Aug 10 Thursday 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm, which made landfall overnight in eastern Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located about a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands have changed little overnight. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the weekend while the
system moves northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although development is not anticipated,
this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of the
Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER MEXICO

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The center of Franklin made landfall on the coast of eastern Mexico
near 0500 UTC with maximum sustained winds near 75 kt based on Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data. The cyclone is now weakening
over land, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 60 kt. Rapid weakening is expected as the low-level
center moves into the mountains of Mexico over the next few hours,
with the low-level circulation expected to dissipate within 24 h.
The mid-level remnants of Franklin should reach the eastern Pacific
in 24-36 h, and re-development is possible at that time.

The initial motion is 260/13. A strong mid- to upper-level high
pressure system should steer Franklin or its remnants generally
westward across Mexico and over the Pacific during the next day or
so.

Franklin will continue to bring torrential rains with flash flooding
and mud slides along its path, and these conditions could persist
even after the low-level center dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.9N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
12H 10/1800Z 19.6N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the
west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the
remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin, after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system may occur before
it moves west-northwestward into a less conducive environment
Sunday, or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of southern Mexico this weekend, or early next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
slow development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts