12 Jul Thu 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Chris, located about 400 miles southwest
of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
the remnants of Beryl is located about midway between the Bahamas
and Bermuda. Little or no development is expected through Friday
while the system moves northeastward. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend
when the disturbance will be moving northward over the warm waters
of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level
trough.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

CHRIS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018

Deep convection has decreased considerable, and the cloud pattern is
taking the typical shape of cyclones during extratropical transition
with the rain shield expanding toward the northwest quadrant. Only a
small area of thunderstorms remain near the center. Dvorak numbers
from TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and assuming that the cyclone has
weakened since the last ASCAT pass several hours ago, the initial
intensity is set at 60 kt in this advisory. Chris will be moving
over much colder waters, and with the increase in shear, the cyclone
is forecast to acquire extratropical characteristics as it moves
very near the extreme southern portion of Newfoundland later today.
After that time, the post-tropical cyclone should continue toward
the northeast and become absorbed by a larger cyclone in about 3 or
4 days.

Chris is now moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30 kt.
The cyclone is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude
westerlies, and this flow should continue to steer Chris on this
general track until it becomes absorbed. Track models are in
excellent agreement in both direction and speed, increasing
the confidence in the NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 42.1N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 45.4N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0600Z 49.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 52.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 54.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 60.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 12 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

A tropical wave currently making its way across the western Caribbean will support isolated showers across the Cayman area this morning. Radar images show scattered showers east and north of Grand Cayman moving west.

 

Humidity: 91%  (UP from yesterday)

UV: 12.3   EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – Not available.  See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 92.0°F  L 71.6°F

Wind direction TODAY: E 10-20 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 10-15 mph GC

Barometer: 1015.80 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 11.49 in    Last 24 hrs 0.56 This month:  0.75 in  0 days since rain 4 rain days in July

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 Season Total: 18.21 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in July 6.9 in.  Average temperature in July: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in July 84°F

 

Moon illumination:  0%  NEW MOON