Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 750 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands are associated with a
tropical wave. Gradual development of this system is
possible over the next 2 to 3 days while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands.
After that time, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit
the chances for additional development when the system moves over
the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Cangialosi

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Ernesto has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in
curved bands around the center. The circulation of the system is
becoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is
wrapping into the western portion of the system. The initial
wind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as
it will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind
shear environment for only another 12 hours. After that time,
the cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move
into an environment of higher shear. These conditions should cause
Ernesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when
the SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C. The
post-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part
to its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near
the United Kingdom this weekend.

The storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving
north-northeastward at 11 kt. A turn to the northeast with a
significant increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing
the system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The
models remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 40.8N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 42.4N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 45.0N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
36H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0600Z 50.6N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z…DISSIPATED

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lane, located over the far southwestern portion of the basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

Isolated thundershowers are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours due to remnant instability as a tropical wave moves west away from the Cayman area. Radar image show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area moving west.