Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Florence, located inland over the Appalachian
mountains.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac,
is located just south of Jamaica. Showers and thunderstorms
are currently limited, and any development should be slow to
occur during the next day or so. By Wednesday, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for re-development
to occur when the system moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba
during the next couple of days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Public Advisories on Florence are issued by the Weather Prediction
Center under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

Tropical Depression Florence

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat.

JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

A few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the
estimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced
eastward by very strong vertical shear. Global model guidance
indicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should
persist over Joyce for the next couple of days. Thus, even though
the system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong
shear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone
to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It would not be
surprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that.
The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and
close to the HWRF model guidance.

The circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat
difficult to locate. The initial motion is a rather uncertain
090/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast
reasoning. Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level
high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone
should turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward
around the eastern periphery of the high. The NHC track forecast
is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and
not too different from the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 34.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time