UPDATE: Two Tropical storms forms in Atlantic east of Caribbean Sea
UPDATE – TS Kirk and TS Leslie Form in Atlantic
Remnants Of Eleven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
Visible images show that the depression has degenerated into a
trough of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. This
disturbance is moving westward toward an even more hostile
shear environment, and regeneration is not anticipated.
This is the last NHC advisory on this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 24/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
Kirk’s cloud pattern has a figure 6 configuration, with most of the
deep convective bands over the western semicircle of the
circulation. Microwave imagery indicates that the center is near
the eastern side of the main area of deep convection, as before.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB support keeping the
intensity at 35 kt. The storm will be moving over warmer waters
with fairly low shear for the next day or two, so some strengthening
is anticipated in the short term. Later in the forecast period,
increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus through 48
hours, and follows the trends shown by the ECMWF and GFS global
guidance thereafter. The latter models suggest that Kirk could open
up into a trough when it nears the Caribbean.
Center fixes indicate that Kirk has been accelerating westward and
the initial motion estimate is now 280/18 kt. A well-defined
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause an even
faster westward motion over the next few days. Near the end of the
forecast period, a weakness in the ridge is likely to lead to a
slowing of the forward speed. The official forecast is a blend of
the latest simple and corrected model consensus forecast tracks and
is also similar to the previous NHC track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 9.3N 30.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 10.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 10.7N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 11.2N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 12.3N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 13.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
IMAGES: NHC Tropical Tidbits
Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global
models have been advertising for the past several days has
materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie
have been initiated.
Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds
are removed from the center. However, there is a chance as usual
that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection
near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the
next day or so is not out of the question. Global models do
indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that
the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.
This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.
Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most
likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow. After
that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie
will likely move east until it becomes absorbed.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 33.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z…ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
Staff report, TCPalm
The Atlantic isn’t as crowded as it was when Hurricane Florence was making its way toward the mainland a week ago, but two tropical waves in the ocean have a chance of developing.
One of the systems is making its way west toward the Caribbean Sea, though its chances of developing are low.
A westward-moving tropical wave is producing a small but concentrated area of thunderstorms about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands.
Some slow development of this disturbance will be possible through early Friday before environmental conditions become quite unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Friday and continuing through the weekend.
A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop this weekend over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores.
After that time, conditions are expected to become favorable for the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone while the low meanders over the central Atlantic.
For more on this story go to: https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2018/09/19/tropical-waves-atlantic-low-chance-developing/1365240002/
1 COMMENTS