28 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 TS, 1 Dist
28 Sep Fri 2018
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
1. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is located over the central Atlantic
Ocean, several hundred miles west of the Azores. Shower activity
has gradually increased near the center of the cyclone since last
night and Leslie is expected to once again become a subtropical
storm later today or tomorrow. Earlier satellite data indicated
that the powerful low is producing storm-force winds that extend
several hundred miles from the center, and Leslie will likely
continue producing strong winds and high seas over a large portion
of the central Atlantic for the next few days regardless of when it
completes its transition to a subtropical storm. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Zelinsky
KIRK MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA… …ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018
Kirk is a highly sheared cyclone with most of the associated
weather well east of the center. Despite the lack of organization of
the cloud pattern, a reconnaissance plane a few hours ago, reported
winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Another plane will
be investigating Kirk early this morning and will determine how much
the cyclone has weakened. The upper-level winds are highly
unfavorable across the entire Caribbean basin, and the most likely
scenario is for Kirk to open up into a trough sooner rather than
later as indicated by most of the global models. The NHC forecast
keeps the cyclone for another 24 hours, but dissipation could occur
much earlier.
Satellite imagery, radar from Martinique, and plane fixes indicate
that Kirk jogged toward the west-southwest earlier. This could be an
indication that the center is becoming less defined, but the bottom
line is that the system as a whole is expected to move westward
about 10 kt since it is embedded within the trade winds. This is the
solution provided by most of the models, which all show a weakening
trough propagating westward across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind
that most of the weather associated with Kirk is displaced to the
east of the center. These winds and rains are still likely to
continue spreading westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm
Warning area for the next several hours. Higher winds are
anticipated especially over elevated terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 13.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 13.2N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rosa, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.
1. An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to gradually become better
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Forecaster Beven/Latto
LARGE AND POWERFUL ROSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT
Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018
Although enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that Rosa’s 20 n
mi wide eye has continued to warm (+16C) this morning, the southwest
quadrant of the eyewall appears to have weakened, or collapsed, and
the inner ring cloud tops have warmed considerably. This change in
the cloud pattern maybe the early stage of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC). It’s certainly worth noting, however, that the
satellite presentation about 3 hours ago indicated that Rosa may
have reached a peak intensity of 130-135 kt which was also
indicated in the ADT adjusted raw T-numbers. For this advisory,
the initial intensity is set at 125 kt and is based on a compromise
of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.
Rosa has a small window of opportunity to complete its ERC and
restrengthen before it encounters decreasing oceanic temperatures,
and increasing southwesterly shear. These inhibiting factors, along
with Rosa moving into a more stable air mass, should cause a
downward intensity trend by early next week, and for the cyclone to
weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday, and a tropical depression as
it quickly moves northeastward over the southwestern U.S. The
intensity forecast is similar to my predecessor’s and is close to
the IVCN consensus through 48 hours, then quite similar to the
NOAA-HCCA intensity model beyond that forecast period.
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/6 kt. A
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States is forecast to
weaken over the next couple of days in response to an approaching
mid-level shortwave trough from the northwest. This growing
weakness in the ridge should influence Rosa to gradually turn
northward through mid-period, and afterward, turn northeastward
within the strong mid- to upper tropospheric southwesterly flow
produced by the aforementioned trough. The NHC track forecast was
adjusted ever so slightly to the left of the previous one to light
more closely to the TVCN and HCCA multi-model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 16.9N 117.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.4N 117.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 20.1N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 22.0N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 25.9N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 30.6N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
120H 03/0600Z 38.2N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook
Weather in Cayman
SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers are expected mainly this morning with a decrease in possibility of showers by this evening as a tropical wave moves across the western Caribbean. Light to moderate winds and slight seas are also expected over the next 24 hours due to a weak pressure gradient across the northwest Caribbean.
Humidity: 72% (DOWN from yesterday)
UV: 10.8 VERY HIGH (UP from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See weather forecast top right of website. Yesterday: H 91.3°F L 77.9°F
Wind direction TODAY: ENE 10-20 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 5-10 mph GC
Barometer: 1015.40 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 1.83 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 12.21 in 6 days since rain 12 rain days in September
2017 Season Total: 62.94 in 2018 Season Total: 36.22 in
Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)
All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in September 8.2 in. Average temperature in September: 77°F to 90°F
Sea Temperature in September 84°F
MOON:
88% Waning Gibbous
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN SEPTEMBER 2018 – Click to enlarge
LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
Moon info and graphic:
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown
Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat
Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.
Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/
Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
Thanks for sharing!So glad everyone is healthy!