From Mike’s Weather Page

Our western Caribbean spot is highlighted by the NHC this AM at 20%.

Shear expected to relax as it heads generally northward.

Conditions could be favorable for development with high ocean heat content (warm deep water), positive MJO (promotion of thunderstorms), and low SAL (lack of dry air).

Will watch close.

Bottom left are your 7-day EURO ensembles… bottom right are your 5-day GFS ensembles. Current satellite pictured here in the upper right.

www.spaghettimodels.com / Mike’s Weather Page APP

From NHC

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms extending from
Central America eastward through Hispaniola. There are no signs
of a surface circulation at this time, but conditions appear to be
favorable for some gradual development of this system late this week
and this weekend while the low drifts generally northward during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Forecaster Avila