6 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 TS, 1 Dist
6 Oct Sat 2018
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Forecaster Beven
LESLIE LOITERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018
Leslie is producing a cluster of deep convection near its center of
circulation and a far-reaching band that curls around the eastern
side of the expansive circulation. The maximum winds are still
estimated to be 50 kt based on last evening’s ASCAT pass. Leslie’s
future intensity will largely be limited by a less-than-ideal
thermodynamic environment, with the center moving over water
temperatures of 24-25 degrees Celsius within its own cold wake
during the next 48 hours. Some weakening is anticipated during that
period, and the NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus and
HCCA guidance. After 48 hours, some restrengthening is possible
when Leslie reaches some warmer waters, although increasing
westerly shear is likely to temper the amount of intensification.
Leslie’s current motion is northeastward, or 045/7 kt. The cyclone
is becoming increasingly embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies, and these winds, with the assistance of a couple of
shortwave troughs, are expected to push Leslie toward the east and
southeast throughout the forecast period. The one notable model
anomaly is the ECMWF, which shows Leslie becoming more separated
from the mid-latitude flow and moving more slowly than shown in the
other models on days 3 through 5. Even with that model being an
outlier, the rest of the guidance has sped up a bit, pulling the
consensus aids eastward. This resulted in the new NHC track
forecast being a little faster than the previous one on days 4 and
5.
Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the eastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic
Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 37.2N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 37.3N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 36.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 35.7N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 33.4N 42.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 30.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 28.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 6 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Sergio, located a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
along the coast of Central America extend from Guatemala to
Nicaragua. Recent satellite imagery and ship observations indicate
that the disturbance has not become any better organized since
yesterday, and close proximity to land is expected to limit the
potential for tropical cyclone formation. However, heavy rains will
continue across western Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El
Salvador, and Guatemala through early next week, resulting in flash
floods and mudslides in mountainous areas of those countries.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
SERGIO SIDEWINDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018
Sergio has changed little in structure since the last advisory. It
still has a 25-30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective tops,
and with not much change in intensity estimates, the estimated
maximum winds remain 110 kt. Sergio’s intensity is not likely to
change much during the next day or two, although some slight
weakening is possible as the hurricane’s speed slows down and it
upwells some colder water from below, or due to possible internal
structural changes. More definitive weakening is anticipated by
days 4 and 5 due to an increase in westerly and southwesterly
shear and the hurricane reaching colder waters. The NHC intensity
forecast remains close to a blend of the ICON consensus and the HCCA
model. However, the statistical-dynamical models remain a bit
higher, and it is possible that Sergio won’t lose quite as much
punch during the next several days as is indicated by the official
forecast.
Sergio continues to dive southwestward with an initial motion of
235/7 kt. A shortwave trough swinging across the Baja California
peninsula will bypass Sergio during the day, leaving a weakness in
the ridge that will allow the hurricane to begin making a sharp
northward and then northeastward turn during the next 24-72 hours.
Another shortwave trough forecast to dig southward off the
California coast will then cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward
on days 4 and 5. Notable changes in this forecast update include a
slightly wider turn from 24-72 hours, and more spread in the model
speeds once Sergio accelerates toward the Baja California
peninsula. As is usually the case in these scenarios, the ECMWF is
much slower than the other models, and because of that, the new NHC
forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, especially on day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 14.9N 123.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook
Weather in Cayman
SYNOPSIS
Cloudiness and showers associated with an area of low pressure centered over Central America and the western Caribbean will continue to spread across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as the Low moves north to northwest at 5 mph. Radar images show scattered showers across the Cayman area moving towards the northwest. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie. This storm poses no threat to the Cayman Islands. For further information on this storm please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Humidity: 90% (UP from yesterday)
UV: 10.6 VERY HIGH (UP from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See weather forecast top right of website. Yesterday: H 87.3°F L 76.7°F
Wind direction TODAY: SE 10-20 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: SE 10-20 mph GC
Barometer: 1013.70 mb Rising slowly Rain: Last month: 12.21 in Last 24 hrs 0.19 This month: 0.91 in 0 days since rain 6 rain days in October
2017 Season Total: 62.94 in 2018 Season Total: 37.13 in
Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)
All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in October 9.2 in. Average temperature in October: 77°F to 88°F
Sea Temperature in October: 84°F
MOON:
9% Illuminated Waning Crescent
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN OCTOBER 2018 – Click to enlarge
LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
Moon info and graphic:
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown
Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat
Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.
Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/
Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
