11 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H/cane, 2 TS, 1 Dist
11 Oct Thu 2018
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Michael, located over South Carolina, on Hurricane Leslie,
located over the east-central Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm
Nadine, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the
west-central Caribbean Sea in a day or two. This system is forecast
to slowly move westward toward Central America through early next
week. Environmental conditions are expected to support some slow
development, however, interaction with land could limit the chance
of formation once the system approaches Central America on Monday or
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA… …TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018
Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern
Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased
to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to
the southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken for
the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina
and into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should start
to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become
a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. The
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and
it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical
phase.
The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate toward
the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is near
the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the
previous forecast.
Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 33.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
12H 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
LESLIE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR COUPLE OF DAYS
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018
The cloud pattern of Leslie has not changed significantly
overnight. The hurricane has a large and ragged eye with deep
convection most organized on its east side. The Dvorak CI-numbers
are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 4.5/77 kt from SAB, and
based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.
Leslie will remain in low wind shear conditions and over relatively
warm waters for another day or two, so little change in strength is
expected during that time. Thereafter, the hurricane is forecast
to move over waters as cool as 24 deg C and into an atmospheric
environment of stronger shear and drier air. All of these
conditions point to a weakening trend, which is likely to begin by
the weekend. Most of the guidance shows a cold front approaching
Leslie, but not quite merging with it so extratropical transition is
not expected. However, it seems likely that Leslie will lose its
convection and become a weaker post-tropical low in about 4 days.
This scenario is supported by the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and
HWRF models.
Leslie has made the expected east-northeastward turn with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 065/9. This east-northeastward motion
with an increase in forward speed is forecast to continue for the
next 2 days while the steering pattern holds. After that time,
however, it becomes much less clear. The models continue to
struggle and keep changing their tune cycle to cycle on whether or
not Leslie continues east-northeastward toward Morocco or Portugal,
or gets left behind and moves west-southwestward due to a building
ridge. The ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF favor the
left behind (or southwestward) solution, and the NHC track forecast
continues to lean in that direction. This forecast does show Leslie
moving farther east before it makes the southwestward turn to be in
better agreement with the latest consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 28.4N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 29.3N 37.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.9N 33.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 32.1N 27.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 32.7N 22.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.3N 18.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 29.0N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
120H 16/0600Z 27.5N 24.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NADINE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON
Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018
Nadine is a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located
near the western edge of the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT
pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt
range, and since the satellite appearance has not changed much, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. This value is near the high end
of the satellite-based intensity estimates. The environment near
Nadine is expected to become even more hostile during the next
couple of days due to the combined effects of strong west-
southwesterly shear and drier air. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast, and dissipation is expected to occur in 2 to 3 days when
the shear is forecast to be in excess of 30 kt. The models are in
good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC
intensity forecast.
The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from previous advisories. Nadine is expected
to continue moving northwestward for about another day while the
tropical storm remains relatively deep, or vertically coherent.
After that time, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is
forecast to turn to the left in the low-level flow, and that motion
should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is not too
different than the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 14.1N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.9N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 16.3N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.7N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sergio, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.
1. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
trough of low pressure is centered a couple of hundred miles off
the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow development of this system
is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward, as long as it stays offshore the coast of
Mexico. Further development is unlikely after this weekend since the
disturbance will be close to, or over, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA… …HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND
Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018
Sergio’s cloud pattern has changed little during the past several
hours, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB haven’t changed either. A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealed numerous 45-kt winds and a 50-kt northerly wind in the
coldest cloud tops of the curved band wrapping around the north
portion of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.
The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A combination
of increasing southwesterly shear, a drier and more stable
surrounding environment, and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures
should influence some weakening as it approaches the Baja California
peninsula. The cyclone is expected to move inland over
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state
of Sonora early Saturday. Afterward, rapid weakening, and
ultimately dissipation, is expected after Sergio makes its second
landfall along the coast of the mainland Mexico. A 72 hour
post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent
the inland motion of Sergio. The intensity forecast is once
again based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models, which
show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.
The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/15
kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue
moving in this general motion through the entire 72 hour period with
a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be approaching
the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the
tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.
The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance and is close to the multi-model consensus aids.
The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 14/0600Z 35.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 15/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook
Weather in Cayman
SYNOPSIS
A slack pressure gradient across the Caribbean will support light winds and seas across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours. Radar images show a few showers over the Sister Islands which are drifting towards the southwest. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Leslie along with Tropical storms Michael and Nadine. These systems pose no threat to the Cayman Islands. For further details please visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
Humidity: 88% (UP from yesterday)
UV: 10.1 VERY HIGH (DOWN from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See weather forecast top right of website. Yesterday: H 88.6°F L 82.0°F
Wind direction TODAY: ENE 5-10 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: NE 5-10 mph GC
Barometer: 1013.40 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 12.21 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 1.55 in 3 days since rain 7 rain days in October
2017 Season Total: 62.94 in 2018 Season Total: 37.77 in
Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)
All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in October 9.2 in. Average temperature in October: 77°F to 88°F
Sea Temperature in October: 84°F
MOON:
7% Illuminated Waxing Crescent
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN OCTOBER 2018 – Click to enlarge
LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
Moon info and graphic:
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown
Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat
Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.
Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/
Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
