28 Jun Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report

June 28, 2019

28 Jun Fri 2019

Tropical Report

ATLANTIC

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Beven

EASTERN PACIFIC

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM PDT Thu Jun 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Alvin, located several hundred miles south of the southerntip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward well away from the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Forecaster Bevin

ALVIN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019

200 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Alvin’s satellite presentation has begun to degrade overnight with

the overall cloud pattern becoming elongated from southwest to

northeast. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the center was located

within the southwestern portion of the main convective mass,

suggesting that southwesterly shear has caused the system to become

less symmetric. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have

started to decrease, and a blend of the various satellite intensity

estimates yields an initial wind speed of 60 kt for this advisory.

Increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters ahead of the storm

are expected to cause rapid weakening during the next 24 to 36

hours. Since Alvin is a small cyclone, it is likely to suffer

from the affects of the hostile environment more quickly. As a

result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of

weakening than indicated by the statistical SHIPS/LGEM models and

is closest to the latest Florida State Superensemble. The cyclone

is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday and it

should dissipate shortly thereafter.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. The track forecast

philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Alvin should

continue to move around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge

during the next couple of days, with the weakening cyclone turning

more westward and decelerating. The latest NHC track forecast is

near the various consensus aids and is essentially an update of

the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 18.0N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 28/1800Z 19.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 30/0600Z 21.3N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 01/0600Z…DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

The Cayman Islands National Weather Service would like to announce that our phone lines are currently down. We are asking the public to email their weather queries to [email protected] or message us via Facebook. We are sorry for the inconvenience as services will be restore as soon as possible.

SYNOPSIS

An increase in cloudiness and showers are expected from tomorrow morning as an upper level low pressure system lingers over the Northwest Caribbean. Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the west.

Humidity: 77% (UP from yesterday)

UV: 11.4 EXTREME (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s expected temperatures – 76°F to 90°F. Yesterday: H 89.7° F L 75.9°F
Winds: Today E 10-20 mph Tonight E 10-15 mph
Barometer: 1014.60 mb Rising slowly

Rain: Last month: 3.76 in

Last 24 hrs 1.11 in This month: 2.76 in

0 days since rain

8 rain days in June

2018 Season Total: 44.03 in

2019 Season Total: 15.70 in

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in June 7.2 in.

Average temperature in June: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in June: 84°F

MOON: 21% illumination