Cayman Islands low may develop when it moves in the Gulf of Mexico
On Tuesday (19) Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather had this report:
Satellite imagery and surface analysis clearly shows an area of gradually lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean this morning. This broad system is producing heavy thunderstorm activity across the Cayman Islands this morning and is expected to gradually push across the northwestern Caribbean today into Wednesday and then into the Bay of Campeche & western Gulf of Mexico by about Thursday. Once we get into Thursday & Friday, we will really have to watch for potential tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico.
Detailed analysis shows a broad trough of low pressure from the Cayman Islands southwestward to near the north coast of Honduras. There has been an increase in vorticity (the amount of spin in the atmosphere) across the western Caribbean over the past 12 to 24 hours, both at the low-levels and also in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Wind shear analysis shows 15 to 20 knots of shear over the deepest convection near the Cayman Islands with 40 knot shear being reported with the trough of low pressure across the northwestern Caribbean. A majority of the deep convection is being produced by the outflow from the trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean. This upper-level trough is expected to lift out over the next day or two and leave a favorable environment for tropical development from the northwest Caribbean into the western Gulf of Mexico.
The reliable forecast guidance members such as the GFS and European models are forecasting that the tropical development will probably wait until later Thursday and especially on Friday just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The potential track of this system could put it into far northeastern Mexico or deep south Texas on Monday.
It needs to be pointed out that very heavy rainfall with the threat for flooding will begin to affect south Florida today and continue right into this weekend. Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of up to 10 inches are expected over the next several days.
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The forecast from Cayman Islands National Weather Service calls today for:
Cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers and thunder especially in the morning. Showers may be locally heavy at times leading to flooding of low lying areas. Temperatures will rise to the mid 80’s. Winds will be southeast 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts. Seas will be moderate to rough with wave heights of 4 to 6 feet. Small crafts should exercise caution over open waters.
