Ernesto Likely A Threat To Mexico & Not To The United States; Long Range Forecast Guidance Points To A Long Tracked Storm That May Need To Be Watched

Written by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather

ON AUGUST 6TH, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto:
Satellite imagery early this morning showed deep thunderstorm activity firing near and to the east of the center of the storm. Even with that, slow intensification is expected and it is possible that Ernesto may be near or at hurricane strength when it comes ashore in northern Belize late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. From there, an area of high pressure is expected to strengthen to the north of Ernesto and cause it to turn westward. It is conceivable that the storm may not even make it into the Bay of Campeche later this week and instead remain over inland southern and eastern Mexico. It is very certain now that Ernesto will be of no threat to the United States.

The biggest threat from Ernesto will be very heavy rainfall with flash flooding. This will be a concern to the northern coast of Honduras, Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula from tonight through Wednesday. From there, heavy rainfall with flash flooding will be an issue across southern and eastern Mexico from Thursday into this upcoming weekend.

A Long Tracked Cape Verde Storm May Be In The Cards From Late This Week Through Next Week:

I am keeping close tabs on a tropical disturbance that is located over western Niger on the continent of Africa. The GFS model guidance, which has been doing a good job with sniffing out potential development areas so far this season, is insistent on developing this particular disturbance into a strong tropical cyclone by next weekend (August 18th & 19th). The GFS model forecasts this system to emerge off of the African coast and track right over the Cape Verde Islands by late this week and forecasts this system to track across the Atlantic Basin throughout next week.

Now, the European model guidance does not forecast any sort of development from this disturbance and keeps it an open tropical wave for the next 10 days that tracks just north of the Lesser Antilles next Wednesday. Additionally, the Canadian model guidance does not forecast any type of development either and it seems that the GFS model is showing this possibility.

I want to say that I am quite skeptical with any long range forecast from any model, so any particular details from any one model should be discounted. The trend in the model guidance is what we should concentrate on and what it’s showing is that the disturbance that tracks off of the African coast may be something that we’re going to have to really track, even if it does not develop right away. Regardless, there is plenty of time to track any potential systems that come off of Africa and I will keep you all updated.

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