From Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather, Thu Aug 9

Tropical Storm Ernesto:
Ernesto appears to be strengthening over the far southern Bay of Campeche this morning and it is quite possible that it will attain hurricane strength before making landfall in southern Mexico a little later this morning. Once Ernesto makes landfall, it will obviously weaken quite quickly and dump very heavy rainfall with flash flooding likely across southern Mexico from today right into this weekend.

Invest 92L:
I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, located over the eastern Atlantic this morning. It seems very likely that this system will become our next named storm either as early as late today or more likely during the day on Friday.

Satellite loops over the past several hours indicate that 92L is now tracking west-southwestward rather than westward. This west-southwestward motion is caused by a small ridge of high pressure that is positioned northeast to southwest over the central Atlantic. Environmental conditions are favorable over 92L and are expected to remain favorable for the next couple of days or so. Even with the favorable conditions, I expect slow development and intensification as it tracks westward over the next several days.

Now, what does the future hold for Invest 92L? Well, as I mentioned I do think that it will become our next named storm (Gordon) as early as late today or more likely on Friday. From there, I suspect we will see slow, but steady strengthening with this system potentially impacting the Lesser Antilles, most likely between the islands of Guadeloupe and St. Lucia on Saturday afternoon as a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm. Once 92L/Gordon reaches the Caribbean, it may end up staying as a steady-state tropical storm or weaken due to unfavorable environmental conditions; but, as we saw with Ernesto, it did not dissipate and this could very well become the case with this system late this weekend into next week as it tracks westward across the Caribbean; in fact, it would not surprise me at all to see 92L/Gordon follow an extremely similar path that Ernesto has taken due to that the fact that the upper-level pattern remains the same as it did with Ernesto.

Those of you in the Lesser Antilles, especially between the islands of Guadeloupe and St. Lucia, as well as on the island of Barbados, you should be aware that tropical storm conditions seem likely during the day Saturday and possibly continuing into Saturday evening. Expect tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 mph, very heavy rainfall with the risk for flash flooding and very rough seas.

I am monitoring this system closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

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