From AccuWeather

> Flooding, mudslides and extended power outages are possible in Puerto Rico 

> Ernesto will bring rough surf and a dangerous rip current risk to Atlantic coast beaches from Florida through Maine starting Thursday 

> Ernesto is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™Scale for Hurricanes across the northeastern Caribbean due to expected strong winds and flooding from heavy rain and storm surge 

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Aug. 13, 2024 – AccuWeather expert meteorologists say drenching rainfall from Ernesto could bring major impacts and extended power outages to Puerto Rico over the next 48 hours before turning northward and creating a risk of dangerous rip currents along Atlantic beaches along the U.S. East coast.

“The Virgin Islands are dealing with drenching rain and gusty winds. This strengthening tropical storm could cause some major impacts and power outages on the islands, including Puerto Rico,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “The forward motion of Ernesto has slowed down. Whenever you see a storm slowing down, that usually signals a change in direction. We expect Ernesto to turn to the northwest.” 

Prepare for impacts across the Caribbean  

Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially across mountainous terrain, as Ernesto crosses through the northeastern Caribbean region.  
 
“Ernesto became a bit more compact Tuesday as the showers and thunderstorms re-formed around the center of circulation,” said Rayno.  

As the storm turns toward the north through the middle of the week, heavy rain will fall across Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will stretch from the Lesser Antilles through Puerto Rico. Near where the storm tracks, 4-8 inches of rainfall is expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches, mainly in the highest elevations.  

AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting sustained winds of 40-60 mph across much of the Lesser Antilles through Puerto Rico. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph are expected in the northeastern Caribbean, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph. 

“My concern is Ernesto will be strengthening as it comes through Puerto Rico, so the impacts may be greater than what people may be expecting from a tropical storm,” said Rayno.  

A storm surge of up to 3-6 feet is forecast for portions of the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico, which would lead to flooding and coastal erosion into Wednesday. The greatest storm surge impacts are expected in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as Ernesto gains strength.