Remnants Of Tropical Depression #7 May Regenerate Into A Tropical Storm In The Western Gulf Of Mexico Either Late This Weekend Or Early Next Week: Tropical Atlantic may become more active: TS Gordon no threat

Thursday, August 16, 2012 5:24 am

by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather

The remnants of Tropical Depression #7 were located over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. These remnants were producing showers and thunderstorms across much of the western Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula and parts of Central America. I expect that this system will move into the Bay of Campeche by tonight where it has the potential to become a tropical cyclone this weekend or early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico.

As for this morning’s forecast guidance, the European model seems to agree with the GFS model in developing a tropical cyclone in the western Gulf of Mexico right around the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Now, the GFS model gradually pulls this system inland into northern Mexico and southern Texas by later next week while the European model forecasts a northward track towards southeastern Louisiana by next Friday.

The latest Canadian model guidance also seems to suggest development into a tropical storm by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and forecasts it to come ashore in south Texas by next Thursday. The experimental FIM model forecasts development into a tropical storm very close to the coast of northeastern Mexico on Monday with the FIM model forecasting it to come ashore right near the Texas-Mexico border on Wednesday.

So, now here are my thoughts: I do think that we will see the remnants of Tropical Depression #7 emerge in the Bay of Campeche sometime before midnight this evening and I think a general west-northwestward track across the Bay of Campeche and towards northeastern Mexico and south Texas seems quite possible this weekend into early next week.

Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable enough to support tropical storm development sometime between Sunday and Tuesday. I do think that this could be a situation where a tropical storm develops very close to the coast of northern Mexico and south Texas and those of you in south Texas from about Corpus Christi to Brownsville should keep close tabs on this potential during this upcoming weekend.

Heavy rainfall is likely once we get into next week across much of coastal Texas with amounts of up to 3 to 5 inches from Beaumont to Houston and up to 10 to 14 inches from Corpus Christi to Brownsville.

Tropical Atlantic may become more active (posted Aug13)

The tropical Atlantic may become more active after August 19th as the Madden Julian Oscillation goes into an upward motion phase over the Atlantic Basin, while at the same the overall pattern across the United States flips to a cooler pattern leading to near or slightly below average temperatures across the central and eastern United States for the second half of August. Many times these pattern flips leads to the “switch” in the Atlantic being flipped to the on position; thus, increased activity in the Atlantic for the second half of August into the first several days of September.

As I mentioned earlier in the Hurricane season, I think we will have to continue watching for in-close development as this is the type of season for that rather than the long-tracked storms. So, what we should look for are inactive tropical disturbances that either reach just east of the Bahamas or the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico and develop close to the United States coastline.

For more on this story go to: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Gordon is no threat to us or any land

Tropical storm gordon discussion number   4

Nws national hurricane center miami fl       al082012

1100 am ast thu aug 16 2012

Visible satellite imagery indicates tightly curved convective bands have formed around a small central dense overcast…which indicatesthat gordon is strengthening. Satellite intensity estimates are T3.0 from tafb…t2.5 from sab…and t2.7 adt from uw-cimss. Given the mid-level banded eye feature noted in a 16/1143 utc ssmis microwave image…the initial intensity has been increased to 45 Kt…which is supported by the 45-kt tafb intensity estimate.

Gordon is recurving to the northeast…and the initial motion is now 045/14 kt. The cyclone has rounded the subtropical ridge axis and will be moving into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 12-24 hours. As a result…gordon should gradually turn toward the East through 72 hours. After that time…the cyclone is expected to lift out toward the northeast ahead of a digging shortwave trough and be near the azores islands in about 4 days. The nhc modelguidance is tightly packed around the previous forecast track…

So only minor tweaks were made for this advisory.

Satellite imagery indicates that upper-level outflow has become well established in all quadrants…especially in the northeastern semicircle. The vertical shear is forecast to remain favorable for about the next 36 hours and warm sea-surface temperatures of at least 27c lie ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these favorable conditions…steady intensification seems reasonable although dry mid-level air is beginning to encroach from the west. By 48 hours…westerly wind shear and dry air entrainment are expected to sharply increase…which should act to put a brake on thestrengthening process. As gordon approaches the azores in 4 days…

The system could merge with a frontal system and transition into a

Strong extratropical cyclone. The intensity forecast is identical

To the previous advisory…and is close to intensity consensus

Model…iv15.

Forecast positions and max winds

Init  16/1500z 33.3n  53.8w   45 kt  50 mph

12h  17/0000z 34.3n  51.8w   50 kt  60 mph

24h  17/1200z 34.9n  48.3w   55 kt  65 mph

36h  18/0000z 34.9n  44.5w   60 kt  70 mph

48h  18/1200z 34.8n  40.6w   65 kt  75 mph

72h  19/1200z 35.6n  32.7w   60 kt  70 mph

96h  20/1200z 37.9n  25.5w   50 kt  60 mph…post-trop/extratrop

120h  21/1200z 40.4n  19.0w   45 kt  50 mph…post-trop/extratrop