Sunday, September 16, 2012 8:04 am

by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather

Invest 92L Located 400 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
The tropical disturbance located to the east of the Lesser Antilles that I wrote about on Friday morning certainly has gotten my attention just over the past 12 to 18 hours as it appears that environmental conditions may become more favorable for development than previously thought. This tropical disturbance is now designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center and is located about 400 miles to the east of the Windward Islands this Sunday morning.

Currently, Invest 92L lacks any real organization and is expected to bring some very squally weather to much of the Lesser Antilles throughout the rest of today right into Monday. Wind shear analysis shows easterly wind shear of around 20 knots is causing the thunderstorm activity to be sheared to the west from the center of low pressure that is located near 55 West Longitude. Now, it does appear that wind shear values are forecast to become more favorable for development as early as tomorrow as a upper level high pressure system builds over Invest 92L. This may allow for some development this week as 92L tracks across the Caribbean and there is a chance that this system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.

It should be pointed out that really none of the global model guidance forecasts any sort of significant development while the statistical models forecast robust intensification this week. I am skeptical about whether this system will even develop as tropical disturbances entering the Caribbean all season have had a very difficult time developing. With that said, I will be keeping close tabs on Invest 92L and will provide updates should this system develop further.

For more information go to:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557