by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with no areas of concern. In fact, this entire week looks quiet with nothing expected to develop. As we get into this coming weekend and into next week, we may have to start monitoring the western Caribbean as forecast guidance shows at least a tropical disturbance forming very near the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize by Sunday into next Monday. This is due to a forecast surge of deep tropical moisture which attempts to stack up the energy as it interacts with the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The latest GFS model guidance has backed off on its earlier forecast of tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche next week and now forecasts this surge of moisture to eventually track west-northwestward into northeastern Mexico and deep south Texas by next Thursday. The European model also shows this system to remain a strong tropical disturbance and possibly a trough axis of low pressure that tracks across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico around the middle part of next week and comes ashore in northeast Mexico or south Texas next Thursday. Now, the Canadian model doesn’t even show the idea of a western Caribbean disturbance but instead forecasts the formation of a rather robust low pressure system just off of the coast of South Carolina by Friday into Saturday. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to remain just offshore through the weekend before coming ashore just north of Savannah, Georgia next Monday.

Ok, so here are my thoughts: I definitely agree that this entire week should be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Now, for the ideas posed by the European and GFS model guidance: I think it’s possible that we may see an increase in moisture and rainfall in the western Caribbean as we get into early next week. At this point, it is too early to say whether this disturbance will morph into a tropical cyclone, but I have my doubts. The reason why is because this surge of moisture may be accompanied by a wind surge as well which would in turn increase the overall wind shear across the western Caribbean and thus kill off any chances of tropical development.

I found the Canadian model guidance’s forecast of a robust low pressure system just off of the South Carolina coast by Friday and Saturday interesting as it has been hinting at this idea since Friday. It should be pointed out that the GFS model guidance does show a very weak low pressure system forming just off of the northeast Florida coast by Friday night but it ends up dissipating by late Saturday. Finally, the European model guidance doesn’t show any sort of development off of the US Southeast coast and instead builds in strong high pressure for late this weekend. At this point, I’m going to discount the Canadian model’s forecast and lean much more towards the idea of perhaps a very weak low pressure system forming just off of the South Carolina or Georgia coast late Friday or Saturday and at this point it shouldn’t be a real problem. One caveat here, however, is that the Canadian model has been very insistent on this robust low pressure idea since Friday and also it was about the only forecast model that forecasted the strengthening of Andrea right before landfall on Friday; so, needless to say I have some qualms about totally disregarding this model, especially since it was recently upgraded to prevent it’s past history of forecasting phantom storms.

So, of the two scenarios (western Caribbean development or development near South Carolina coast), I will be watching for the second scenario much more closely as we head towards late this week. Either way, much of this week looks quiet and I’m very confident to say I expect no tropical development in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico through at least Thursday.

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