A tropical wave in our area may develop after it leaves us.

Tuesday Forecast:

Partly cloudy skies today with a 30% chance of showers. Cloudy tonight with a 60% chance of thundershowers.

WINDS

East to northeast 10 to 15 knots today. Southeast 15 to 20 knots tonight.

SEA STATE

Moderate with wave height of 3 to 5 feet.Gusty wind and rough seas are likely near showers.

Wednesday Forecast:

FORECAST

Cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers and thunder. Showers may be locally heavy at times.

WINDS

East to southeast 15 to 20 knots.

SEA STATE

Rough with wave height of 4 to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution over open water.

From Weather Underground:

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico

A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days.

However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday.

In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.