Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather warns of potential tropical troubles over the next week. The various model guidance forecast have differing views:

The GFS model starts to spin up this low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean during Saturday into Sunday and forecasts it to attain tropical storm strength by Sunday night. After that, the GFS model forecasts this tropical storm to make landfall on the north coast of Honduras on Monday night into Tuesday morning as a strong tropical storm. The GFS model also forecasts the development of a second tropical cyclone in the central Caribbean by about the middle part of next week. This second potential system appears to originate from the deep thunderstorm activity that is now occurring near the coast of Guyana in northeastern South America. The GFS model then forecasts this second system to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday and forecasts it to impact Jamaica and eastern Cuba late next week as a Category 1 hurricane.

The Canadian modelslowly develops the low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and forecasts it to strengthen to tropical storm strength during Monday as it lifts northward into the northwestern Caribbean. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to turn to the west and affect the Cayman Islands as a tropical storm on Monday night and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday as a tropical storm.

The UKMET model looks fairly similar to the Canadian model in that it forecasts slow development over the weekend as it pulls northward out of the southwestern Caribbean. As we get into next week, the UKMET model forecasts this potential tropical cyclone to affect the Cayman Islands by Tuesday and western Cuba by Wednesday. The UKMET model also forecasts that barometric pressures will remain low across the entire Caribbean next week potentially supporting the idea of a second tropical cyclone forming later next week in the central and western Caribbean.

The European model is also on board with potential development in the southwestern Caribbean and forecasts this system to start organizing over the weekend and be lifted northward and affect the Cayman Islands and western Cuba once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, the European model forecasts this system to track northeastward affecting the Florida Straits and south Florida as a hurricane on Thursday and then become absorbed into a large storm system off of the New England coast by next Friday.

Rob says he is leaning towards the “system lifting northward and potentially affecting the northwestern Caribbean and potentially south Florida and the Bahamas. With that said, western Caribbean tropical cyclones are notoriously very difficult to forecast and many things may change in the forecast of this potential tropical system over the weekend and into next week.”

For the full weather discussion go to Crown Weather Services at www.crownweather.com and to the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/. We wish to thank Crown Weather for the permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them. Also look for the local advisories from the C.I. Government at www.weather.gov.ky