Whilst all eyes are on Hurricane Isaac and we in the Cayman Islands breathed a sigh of relief at its passing way North of us and suffering only some minor flooding, there is another Tropical Storm out there.

I am talking of Kirk and I don’t mean Kirk Home Centre or Kirk Supermarket, Shipping, etc. Tropical Storm Kirk has been around now for a week and slowly intensifying. Happily all the model projections show it stopping its WNW path and turning North and then NE out of landfall way and absolutely no threat to us.

And now along comes Invest 98L It is being investigated as a potential disturbance with a 30% chance of becoming a cyclone. It has become better organised and it can very soon become a Depression by the end of this week as predicted. It will be called Leslie if it gets to become a tropical Storm. It is an enormous disturbance.

Looking at the computer models for it (see attached) they all show the disturbance coming west towards the Lesser Antilles and then turning WNW, WN, N and NE. The question is how close the disturbance comes west (each new model forecast shows it coming further west) and how strong or weak the upper ridge is. We will know in 7 days time.

There is a long way yet to ponder but do keep watch on Invest 98L. iNews Cayman is.

LATEST:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY…AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

98L AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N26W 16N29W…
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N30W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7.5N TO
10.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W…SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.