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AccuWeather Severe Weather Advisories

This tropical rainstorm is a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanesfor Central America, which warns of widespread catastrophic flooding and flooding issues that may last days to weeks, widespread power outages, structural damage to many buildings, and severe coastal inundation
 
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AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Nov. 13, 2024 – AccuWeather hurricane experts have issued a catastrophic risk to lives and property in parts of Central America due to an increasing risk of life-threatening flash flooding from a brewing hurricane threat. 

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter says the developing storm in the western Caribbean is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by Thursday and will likely intensify into a Category 3 hurricane this weekend. The next name on the Atlantic basin list is Sara.  

“AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster across parts of Central America, especially near steep terrain across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua,” said Porter. “These communities are especially vulnerable to flooding, as tragically seen in major flooding disasters in this area in modern times, including Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which tragically claimed over 11,000 lives, and devastating flooding from Hurricane Eta and Iota in 2020.”

 AccuWeather is now forecasting a zone of 12-18 inches of rainfall across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 50 inches. 

Porter says there is a risk of extreme rainfall in this area from Thursday through Sunday.

“Mountains add an extra lifting mechanism to enhance rainfall rates, which may fall at 4 inches or more per hour. The rain may come too fast and too furious. In areas of steep terrain, runoff is greatly enhanced, further increasing the risk for catastrophic flooding, damaging mudslides and roads, and the potential for bridges and railroads to be washed out or destroyed,” Porter warned. “People, businesses and governments across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua should be closely monitoring the AccuWeather forecast and start preparations for major flooding.  A hurricane making landfall in this area also will produce other life-threatening impacts including damaging winds and a storm surge. If confidence in the risk for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster increases, evacuations of people may become necessary, especially in the greatest risk areas for people near creeks, streams, rivers and other bodies of water, as well near steep terrain where damaging mudslides are more likely.” 

AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that impacts in Central America could be compounded if the storm slows down or stalls in the western Caribbean.  

“Should the hurricane slow down considerably and dwell over parts of Central America for a day or more, a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster would become inevitable, which can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where many people need basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing, and medical care,” Porter explained.  “Even if the storm does not intensify into a hurricane, the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster will remain.” 

This tropical rainstorm is a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale  for Hurricanes for Central America, which warns of widespread catastrophic flooding and flooding issues that may last days to weeks, widespread power outages, structural damage to many buildings, and severe coastal inundation.  

 The tropical rainstorm is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™  Scale for Hurricanes for the Caribbean, which warns of localized flooding and damage to unanchored mobile homes, vegetation and signs, as well as localized power outages and coastal inundation resulting in some property damage.   

In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm on lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed, but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms, result in more deaths and economic loss than wind.         

Additional AccuWeather Resources:

Rafael strengthens near Cuba, may approach US later this weekend 

AccuWeather Hurricane Tracker

Will Rafael bring another flash flood disaster to the southeastern US? 

There is no better place to track the storm and its impacts than AccuWeather.com, the free AccuWeather mobile apps, the AccuWeather TV Network or AccuWeather partner outlets.