Final evidence report represents the most comprehensive review of climate risks and opportunities to the Cayman Islands undertaken to date

Grand Cayman – Thursday, 23 February 2023
The final evidence report of the Climate Change Risk Assessment identifies, scores and ranks 50 risks related to biodiversity and habitats, the economy and society in the Cayman Islands.

Premier and Minister for Sustainability & Climate Resiliency, Hon. Wayne Panton, said the Climate Change Risk Assessment provides an important evidence base for informing an updated national climate change policy, which is currently being developed by a technical working group spearheaded by the Ministry of Sustainability & Climate Resiliency and the Department of Environment.

“We know small island nations like the Cayman Islands are the figurative ‘canaries in the coalmine’ for the existential threats posed by climate change. Initiatives like the Climate Change Risk Assessment and development of an updated national Climate Change Policy are essential to ensuring our community can navigate the ongoing and anticipated challenges of a warming world while balancing our environment, economy and society,” he said. “The technical working group continues to be in contact with the Climate Change Risk Assessment technical stakeholder group as they work to refine a first draft of the Climate Change Policy. Our aim is to start public consultation on this important document in the early part of the second quarter of this year.”

The full Cayman Islands Climate Change Risk Assessment technical evidence report and non- technical summary document are available for review here: gov.ky/sustainability/climatechangepolicy

Key Findings

The risk report analysed several important physical climate change drivers and impacts, including: Changes in storms, cyclones, winds, waves and storm surges; Sea-level rise; Increasing air and sea temperatures; Changes in ocean salinity; Ocean acidification; and Changes to rainfall patterns. Local and regional data reveal that many of these impacts are already occurring, including fewer but more severe rainfall events; increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones; and increases in air and sea temperatures.

Of the 50 risks analysed in the Climate Change Risk Assessment, 18 were considered ‘severe’ based on a combined review of magnitude (seriousness), proximity (urgency) and confidence of available scientific data. Of the 18 severe risks, nine are related to the economy and society, and nine are related to biodiversity and habitats.

Severe risks included impacts to marine species such as sea turtles and corals, loss and damage to natural habitats, disruption to the energy sector, and damage and inundation of key infrastructure such as sewerage systems, roads, airports, coastal settlements, ports and shipping traffic.

Background

Launched in 2021 by the Cayman Islands Government in partnership with the Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science (Cefas) and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH), the Climate Change Risk Assessment identifies risks posed by climate change to the country’s current and future needs, and highlights opportunities for increasing climate resiliency.

Over the course of 2022, Cefas and UKCEH conducted extensive desktop research to compile a draft report which was ground-truthed by local and regional experts. Over the course of a two- day workshop held in May 2022, technical stakeholders representing more than 30 public and private organisations reviewed, scored and ranked the draft risk register based on magnitude, proximity and confidence of available scientific data. Local technical stakeholders attended the workshops in-person while regional experts joined remotely.

The methodology used in the analysis was informed by protocols developed for the United Kingdom’s 2012 and subsequent Climate Change Risk Assessments.

Funded through the Governor’s Office, the local Climate Change Risk Assessment process also included a public townhall meeting, and digital survey.

Next Steps

The microsite launched to host the Climate Change Risk Assessment documents will become the central hub for updates on the Climate Change Policy.

Once the working draft of the Policy has been finalised by the technical working group, the document will be put before Cabinet for review and approval to commence public consultation. The thirty (30) day public consultation period for the draft Policy is expected to commence in the early part of the second quarter of this year, with several public meetings held across all three islands and a digital feedback mechanism to capture community feedback.

Once public feedback has been incorporated into the final draft, the policy will be presented to Cabinet for final review and approval. Implementation planning for the Policy is expected to take place over the course of 2023-2024.