From Soualiga Newsday

01 Aug 2016

SINT MAARTEN/CAYMAN ISLANDS – The Cayman Islands National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch as of 6.00pm on Monday. The tropical wave is becoming more organized as it moves westward. The system should impact the Cayman Islands for about a 24-hour period.

Cayman Airways has cancelled a flight to Jamaica. Cayman Islands Hazard Management reports that they are watching the system closely. Boat owners on the south and east side of the island have been asked to secure boats and coastal residents to secure yard furniture.

The Marine Unit has urged boaters to stay off the water.

Reports out of the Dominican Republic indicate that six people lost their lives in flash floods due to the tropical wave. They were on a bus which was returning from a beach excursion, another 12 on board were injured. A power line was brought down starting a fire.

A tour boat overturned on Sunday near the Samana Peninsular. Authorities recovered three bodies while four were still missing. An investigation still has to determine what happened.

The Dominican Republic Emergency Operations Center reported that 19 of 32 provinces were placed on alert for potential flooding as the system passed south of the island.

ARCHIVE, August 1st, 2016, SINT MAARTEN/JAMAICA – The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica as a strong tropical wave continues to make its way towards the island. The system shows signs of development and is being investigated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) out of Miami.

Fishermen on the nearby cays and banks have been strongly advised to evacuate the aforementioned immediately and start returning to mainland Jamaica. Tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Small craft operators along the Jamaica coastal areas have been warned to report to port and those in port not to venture out to sea as the weather system approaches.

Flash flooding is a possibility in low-lying areas especially in the Southern parishes of the country.

The wave could be classified as a tropical storm later today – 5.00pm – or Monday evening by the NHC. Once named, the wave will become the fifth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season and will be called Earl.

ARCHIVE, August 1st, 2016, SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – Tropical Storm Earl could form by Monday night from a tropical wave that passed Sint Maarten and the islands of the Eastern Caribbean over the weekend. A hurricane hunter aircraft will fly into the system late Monday afternoon according to the National Hurricane Center out of Miami.

Crown Weather reported on Monday: “Invest 97-L has become much better organized and in my opinion is already a tropical storm, even though the National Hurricane Center hasn’t initiated advisories on it. Satellite imagery indicates that there is deep thunderstorm activity occurring and in fact this convection has increased in coverage since last night.
“In addition, satellite loops indicate there is an apparent spin of the thunderstorm activity with bands of thunderstorm activity forming near the deep convection. Finally, satellite wind data indicates that there are 40 to 45 mph surface winds occurring within the deep thunderstorm activity. All of this evidence leads me to believe that this is already Tropical Storm Earl and I expect to see the National Hurricane Center upgrade it to a tropical storm at some point today.
“For those of you on the island of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading across Jamaica sometime this afternoon or this evening and then reaching the Cayman Islandson Tuesday. These tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across Jamaica right through Tuesday before diminishing on Wednesday. Across the Cayman Islands, tropical storm conditions are expected throughout the day on Tuesday which could last into part of Wednesday before ending later Wednesday.

“The latest model guidance consensus has shifted to the south in the overall forecast track of Invest 97-L. This means that while it is looking much less likely that there will be a Texas impact from this system, it looks very likely that Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, parts of Central America and parts of the east coast of Mexico will be impacted by this system. In fact, the intensity guidance is forecasting that Invest 97-L may be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize on Thursday. It should be noted and taken into consideration that the HWRF model, which did forecast the intensification of Invest 97-L, is forecasting that this system may be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane and impact the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night into Thursday.

“Here Are My Thoughts On Invest 97-L: As I have already mentioned, it looks very likely that Invest 97-L is already a tropical storm and I fully anticipate the National Hurricane Center to initiate advisories on it sometime today. This means that Watches and Warnings will likely be issued as soon as midday for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as tropical storm conditions are likely to spread across Jamaica this afternoon or this evening and then the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

“We are also going to have to really watch out for rapid intensification as the overall weather pattern and very favorable environmental conditions support rapid strengthening during Tuesday and Wednesday as this system tracks from near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to near the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize by Thursday. This means that we need to strongly consider that Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula may be impacted with hurricane conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday.

“Fortunately for the coast of Texas and the rest of the US Gulf Coast, a strong upper level ridge of high pressure across the southern United States should guide Invest 97-L on a west and west-northwest path towards Mexico and possibly Central America. It is looking less likely at this point that there will be a break in the ridge of high pressure, so the chance for this system to turn north westward towards Texas is decreasing considerably.

“Everyone across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the rest of the western Caribbean should be ready for tropical storm and even hurricane conditions.”

For more on this story go to: http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/soualiga-newsday-latest-news/item/9198-updated-cayman-islands-now-under-tropical-storm-watch-six-die-in-dominican-republic-due-to-flooding.html