Section 26 of the Public Management and Finance Law (2013 Revision) (the PMFL), as amended, provides for the Chief Officer of the Ministry responsible for Finance to Gazette a Pre-Election Economic and Financial Update (PREFU) not more than forty-two days, nor less than twenty-eight days before the date of a General Election. The Cayman Islands’ next General Election will be held on 24 May 2017. The purpose of the PREFU is to provide updated information on the economic and financial outlook of the Government of the Cayman Islands (Government). The information in this report takes into account, to the fullest extent possible, all Government decisions made by 24 April 2017, and all other circumstances that may have a material effect on the financial and economic outlook.

FROM ECONOMIC REPORT

8. CONCLUSION

As required by the Public Management and Finance Law (2013 Revision), as amended, this Pre-Election Economic and Financial Update presents the financial and macroeconomic forecasts and assumptions for the current financial year and the following financial year, and related commentary on the current trajectory of Government finances.

The economic forecast shows positive indicators for growth and reduced unemployment over the forecast period.
The forecasts are contingent on stable international economic conditions, private sector growth and the absence of economic shocks resulting from natural disasters or adverse international legislation.

For the financial year ending 31 December 2017, the Government is forecast to have an Operating Surplus of $48.1 million. This forecast result is $1.5 million more than the $46.6 million originally budgeted, and results from higher than expected Revenue compared to the amount initially budgeted.

Core Government is forecast to have closing bank account balances totalling $353.5 million for the year ending 31 December 2017. This amount is $12.3 million more than the $341.2 million shown in the 2016/17 original budget.

For the Entire Public Sector (EPS), closing bank balances for financial year 2016/17 is forecast to be $465.1 million; this amount is $37.8 million more than the $427.3 million shown in the 2016/17 budget.
Core Government debt is forecast to be $451.1 million at the end of financial year 2016/17. This accords with the original budget as all debt service obligations are expected to be met. For the wider Entire Public Sector, the closing debt balance is forecast to be $506.7 million at the end of 2016/17.

The Government is forecast to be in full compliance with the Principles of Responsible Financial Management throughout the forecast period.

The information in this PREFU document is based on the year-to-date actual results, the representations and judgements provided by Chief Financial Officers of Ministries, Portfolios, Offices, Statutory Authorities and Government Owned Companies (Public Authorities), and the professional judgement of staff in Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, using the most recent information available on economic conditions, financial performance and estimated outturn.